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| Cheltenham 2012 |
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Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
07/02/12
The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 16th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. Paul Nicholls who has won 3 of the last 5 renewals and Kauto Star will be looking to win the race for a third time but will have last year’s winner, Long Run, to contend with.
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Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-3
7yo: 4-2-21
8yo: 2-6-45
9yo: 3-6-33
10yo: 0-3-30
11yo: 0-3-13
12yo+: 0-0-5
Horses aged 6 to 9 (10-14-102) have won the last 10 runnings.
Horses aged 10+ (0-6-48) have gained no wins and 6 places in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. The 6 placed finishers aged 10+ had were either former Gold Cup winners or had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National.
Breeding
Irish Bred: 7-13-88
French Bred: 3-6-42
British Bred: 0-1-17
German Bred: 0-0-2
American Bred 0-0-1
Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10, though they have represented almost 87% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases that season
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 11 chases in their career (Kauto Star winning it a second time was an exception)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had each finished runner-up in the Lexus and King George on their only previous try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase that season (exception Imperial Commander beaten a short head in Betfair Chase)
5 of 5 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase
Previous Cheltenham Festival Form
Returning Gold Cup winner (Long Run): 01122FP (2-2-7)
RSA Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 1P195 (2-0-5)
Ryanair Chase winner (Albertas Run): 1 (1-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27
9 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at the previous Festival (exception was Best Mate in 2002, there was no 2001 Festival).
9 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother was only exception)
Other races
King George winner (Kauto Star): 011121F1 (5-1-7)
Lexus Chase winner (Synchronised): 9F100137 (2-1-8)
AON Chase winner: (No Race 2011) 04118 (2-0-5)
JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 9P013 (1-1-5)
Betfair Chase winner (Kauto Star): 012PFP (1-1-6)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Carruthers): 576182 (1-1-6)
Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Captain Chris): 1 (1-0-1)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Medermit): 16 (1-0-2)
Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase winner (Time For Rupert): 1P (1-0-2)
Old Roan Chase winner (Albertas Run): 10 (1-0-2)
Rehearsal Chase winner (Hey Big Spender): 828 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s Ryman Novice Chase winner (Time For Rupert): 290 (0-1-3)
Previous season Fort Leney Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F37 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s Drinmore Chase winner (Jessies Dream): F37 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F3F5 (0-1-4)
Cotswold Chase winner (Midnight Chase): 55268 (0-1-5)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 0P (0-0-2)
Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 5P (0-0-2)
Previous Towton Novice Chase winner (Wayward Prince): 60P (0-0-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Weird Al): F050 (0-0-4)
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup winner (): 0F4004P (0-0-7)
7 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2111151
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 121
10 of 10 winners ran in Lexus or King George (9 of 10 were 1st or 2nd)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aon Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-7-27) has trained 3 of the last 5 winners of this and seen over a third of his runners make the places since 2002.
Mouse Morris (1-0-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-6) are the only other trainers with entrants to have saddled the winner in past 10 years.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-6) has trained 2 placed finishers from 6 runners since 2002.
The Pipe Stable (0-0-13) and Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 17 collective runners.
Irish trained runners (2-5-28) won the race 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled more recently, failing to fill a place in any of the last 5 years (they were not represented in 2009).
Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The longest priced winner since 2000 has been 15/2.
Favourites (6-2-10) have taken 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 8.85.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 9
• Irish or French bred
• Had 6 to 11 career chase start (2 to 5 this season)
• Second or third season chaser (or previous winner)
• Finished in the first 2 last time and posted RPR of 162+
• Won over 3M+
• Won a grade 1 chase (and won a grade 1 or 2 chase this season)
• Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2011 Festival
• Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season
• From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)
• Trained in Britain (especially by Paul Nicholls)
