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RacingBetter News |
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| Friday 20th September 2024 | ||
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Friday Freebie: Midnight Looks Ready To Rumble At Newbury
No preview last week. The service did pretty well at Doncaster but it was mostly very small bets at big prices and I didn’t fancy anything strongly enough to warrant a detailed preview.
The last column focused on a race at Ascot and for the first time in almost two years of writing this column I picked a non runner. It’s always easy to say a non runner would have won had he taken his chance, but in hindsight, with an outsider winning the race, it really was a race that was at Pearle d’Or’s mercy.
The preview largely got things right about those that did run, with the early favourite not particularly enjoying the ground and those with proven softer ground form coming to the fore.
This Week’s Race
There is one I really like at Ayr on Friday but drying ground is slightly against him. Unfortunately drying ground has been against most of my fancies for this meeting at Ayr - there would have been confident bets on all three days of the festival on good to soft.
Drying ground might also be against the one I like at Newbury on Friday, but the ground is softer there than at Ayr and there is some rain forecast too which will hopefully help.
So the race in question this week is the 5.15pm at Newbury. This is a 10f handicap that looks extremely competitive and there are a fair few runners open to plenty of improvement, which means it’s going to be difficult to be overly confident about anything. But it also means there should be nice prices about all the runners.
At the time of writing, the ground is described as good to soft, good in places. It’s likely to dry out cose to good all round but there is rain forecast on Friday afternoon. Most forecasts suggest the rain will be minimal but Newbury’s updates seem pessimistic, with some short but heavy downpours predicted. With that in mind we ideally want to be on something that is fine on good but will handle softer ground.
Newbury Pointers
The 10f course at Newbury is a nice fair track on pretty much any going. Ideally, on this sort of ground, you want to be prominent or in mid division early, with extremes of ride (either way) not performing quite as well on average.
There isn’t much difference between low and middle draws but higher draws do underperform slightly, with single figure draws preferred but not crucial.
Unexposed Improvers Likely To Dominate The Betting
There is no early market at the time of writing to help guide me but you can be sure that the market is going to favour the horses that could prove substantially ahead of their marks.
Two of these are making their handicap debuts and they are Shamran and Galyx. I’m generally pretty happy to take these types on. They usually take a fair chunk out of the market and can often be overrated based on good runs in novice or maiden company.
Shamram has only run on fast ground on turf and is unproven over further than a mile. He won well last time out and his 2nd to Min Huna suggests he could be well handicapped but easier ground, a longer trip and a wide draw make him opposable, for all he may well win.
Galyx is a bit more proven in conditions, having run well on soft ground the last twice and he only steps up a furlong in trip. He was 3rd last time out in a novice and there is a bit of proven handicap form in front of him which is useful. The winner was in receipt of 12lbs from Galyx, beating him by 2.5 lengths, and he’s since disappointed off a mark of 81. The runner up, 2.25 lengths ahead of Galyx, in receipt of 7lbs, has since won a handicap off 82 and is now rated 90. On a line through him you’d be giving Galyx a mark in the high 80s so Galyx is potentially well in here off 83 but the now 90 rated runner up from his last race was probably flattered by his winning margin last time out so Galyx’s mark is likely about right.
The lightly raced improvers in this field aren’t limited to handicap debutants. Sir Michael Stoute’s More Thunder is likely to be very near the head of the betting. He was well held in 2nd on handicap debut at Chester when last seen in July but that winner has since won off a 7lb higher mark, albeit benefitting from the run of the race. He didn’t run well on good to soft on debut (admittedly probably needed the run) and was pulled out last time he was entered because of soft ground so there are questions to answer if the ground does soften.
Odin Legacy is unlikely to be amongst the favourites but he was only beaten a length last time out in a small field and has only run four times so he definitely merits consideration. He’s proven over this trip and handles softer ground but he did seem to get the run of the race last time out and still wasn’t good enough so he’ll likely need to have improved for that experience.
Consistent Alan King Runner Remains Interesting
Midnight Rumble, trained by Alan King, is a runner I’ve been monitoring for a few months, but he hasn’t been seen very often because he clearly has a preference for softer ground and there hasn’t been much of that about.
He’s finished 1st or 2nd on his last four starts and the really eye-catching bit of form is his 2nd to Blake in July on soft ground. The third won next time out, the fourth won both starts since and even the sixth, beaten 15 lengths on that occasion, won next time too.
He’s only run once since and he was 2nd again at Sandown, this time on good ground. The horse that beat him was clearly well in and has run well at a higher level since off a much higher mark. The 3rd that day, Crimson Road, was 1.5 lengths behind Midnight Rumble and won next time out. That proves that even on good ground Midnight Rumble looks well handicapped but he’ll surely be even better if the ground is softer.
Crimson Road actually reopposes here, 1lb worse off, and it would be a surprise if he reverses form with Midnight Rumble.
Plenty Of Other 3yos In With Chances
This race has been won by the classic generation in five of the last six years and they definitely seem to have the upper hand here.
Due To Henry won over this trip in soft ground three starts back and was runner up next time out in a race that has worked out pretty well. He was a close up 5th last time on fast ground, strongly giving the impression he’ll improve for the return to easier ground and even on good ground here it would be no surprise to see him finish in the money as a minimum.
Willy Campbell is relatively exposed now but has finished 2nd in handicaps on his last two starts. He’s up in class and has looked better on the all weather so far so he looks opposable enough.
Didaar has looked a bit one paced in his four start career so far and didn’t seem to improve for 12f last time out, for all he probably stayed the trip. He needs to improve for easier ground here (if the ground does ease) and there is a chance he does so being by No Nay Never but he’s likely to be held by others.
Bigbertiebassett completes the list of 3yos. He’s been well held in five handicap starts this season and hasn’t convinced over this trip on his last two starts. His mark is falling but he looks one to take on.
Older Horses Can’t Be Ruled Out
If the rain does come then Mustazeed becomes very interesting. He’s a great horse to watch when he gets his conditions as he scythes through the field from the back. His last two wins (both last season) came over course and distance but it is worth noting he’s still 3lbs higher than his last winning mark at the age of 6.
He ran a subsequent double winner close a few starts back at Ascot off a 1lb lower mark and was runner up to a subsequent Group 3 winner on heavy ground at the tail end of last season off a 2lb higher mark so he’s definitely handicapped to run well if the ground softens at least a bit.
The other older horses have a bit to find. Azahara Palace looks like he needs to go back to a mile (and won’t want rain), Amor Vincit Omnia looks interesting on his last run but hasn’t been seen for almost 500 days and Achillea is well handicapped on older form and will handle conditions but the step up in trip is a question mark and she seems to have lost her way.
Summary
Shamran and Galyx are the ones with the sexy profiles and whilst the former looks likely to prove better handicapped, the latter has fewer questions to answer on this occasion. A win for either would be no shock but neither look betting propositions at the likely prices.
Mustazeed comes into this if the rain arrives but he might find his best chance of getting his head in front this season comes off a slightly lower mark and/or away from unexposed 3yos.
The most solid pair are perhaps More Thunder and Midnight Rumble. The former was beaten far enough on handicap debut but the winner was clearly well handicapped and got the run of the race too whilst this represents a drop in class for Sir Michael Stoute’s runner.
MIDNIGHT RUMBLE has been held off slightly lower marks on his last two starts but both races have worked out very well. There is no guarantee that this race is any weaker but any rain that falls would really enhance his claims and he looks a solid place proposition at least, even on good ground. The big negative is that the handicapper has perhaps been a bit too on the ball, putting him up 6lbs for his last two defeats (2lbs for being beaten 4 lengths last time).
I won’t be getting carried away but the rivals he faces here should ensure he’s a nice each way price and with most bookies paying four places there is a good chance this bet returns a profit, for all there are a few potential flies in the ointment in this race.
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