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RacingBetter News |
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| Friday 6th September 2024 | ||
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Friday Freebie: Pearle Looks A Valuable Bet At Ascot
There was no preview last week as the racing was very poor so the last horse we backed in this column was Derry Lad at York. He’s very much an all or nothing horse and this time around it was very much a ‘nothing’ effort with no obvious excuses. He remains well handicapped but isn’t one for maximum faith after that effort unfortunately. Maybe next Spring will be the time to catch him (his form tailed off towards the end of last season as well).
I definitely got it wrong with Derry Lad on this occasion but these columns are designed to give far more insight than just what I think is the best value bet. I highlighted that the three 3yos near the head of the betting all looked vulnerable (none of them made it into the first 3) and the likes of Lieber Power and Euchen Glen, who got decent write ups, outran their odds in 2nd and 5th respectively. The winner, Shadow Dance, was given a strong mention from a handicapping perspective but I didn’t especially fancy him on the fast ground (which actually eased more than expected to good on the day).
Hopefully there are always valuable pointers in the previews, even when I get the tip wrong!
This Week’s Race
I’m really excited about Friday and Saturday this week as there are several runners that I’m quite keen on and the ground seems to be coming in their favour too.
A couple of the more interesting runners are ones I think I’ve previously covered in this column so I’m going to cover one I haven’t yet made a case for in this week’s preview.
So this week I’ll be looking at the 4.10 at Ascot, which is a Classified Stakes for horses rated up to 90, which will be run over 7f.
The going at Ascot throughout the week has been ‘good’ despite there only having been 2.2mm of rain in the 7 day period leading up to Thursday (it’s been overwatered obviously). Heavy rain on Thursday (and showers on Friday) are likely to turn the ground to good to soft at ‘best’ and more likely heading towards soft. The straight course does tend to take the rain better than the round course though so it shouldn’t be too testing.
Ascot Pointers
This race will be run on the straight track which tends to favour those that are patiently ridden, much more so than most other courses in the UK.
The race in question only has 10 runners so it’s unlikely there will be much of a draw bias. When the stalls are on the stands’ side it can be an advantage to be closer to the near side rail but this can vary from meeting to meeting.
The Runners
In early betting order:
Waleefy
It’s no surprise he’s been progressive this season and improved for 7f given he’s so well bred (half brother to Baaeed). He won an average class 4 handicap in very good style on his penultimate start before finding a steadily run race against him in a class 2 handicap at Newbury, where he finished 2nd. The all the way leader never came back to the field that day and whilst Waleefy did best of those coming out of the pack, he wasn’t too poorly positioned in 4th early and the form of that race hasn’t been working out particularly well.
So whilst he’s got a really likeable profile and looks the sort to continue progressing well, his form doesn’t necessarily entitle him to be a red hot favourite here. On fast ground he’s probably the most likely winner but softer ground is a complete unknown - he’s looked very happy on fast ground in recent starts. No surprise if he wins but he’s a poor price once the ground softens.
Harvard Sound
The most lightly raced runner in the field and it’s very difficult to figure out how well handicapped he might be.
He was runner up in a poor maiden first time out (winner currently rated 74). He won a small field race next time out by 7.5 lengths and that’s our best opportunity of figuring out what mark he should have. The 2nd and 3rd are both rated in the mid to low 70s so if you take that form literally, Harvard Sound could have a few pounds in hand off a mark of 89 here.
It’s also worth noting he’s the highest rated of the fancied runners so is a pound or two well in with most of them on official ratings, with this being a Classifed Stakes and not a handicap.
After winning for the first time, he’d win again next time by a wide margin too, but that was a 3 runner novice race which is almost impossible to assess.
It’s clear that he could be anything but it’s also worth noting he has already been a non runner previously because of soft ground and if he takes his chance here, the ground is a complete unknown.
United Approach
The shortest priced runner with soft ground form is a 4yo with very few miles on the clock. After maiden/novice wins on softish ground he missed the majority of his 3yo campaign through injury. He then ran better than the bare result on his return at Newbury, finishing 4th in a steadily run sprint on good ground over a trip that was likely to be on the short side for him this year.
Unsurprisingly, he went closer next time out, finishing 2nd at Newcastle on his first run at 7f. The easy winner has since won a Group 3 so in hindsight he had no chance of beating him but the 4th, 5th and 6th haven’t done much for the form since.
He looks capable of winning in the near future and conditions should be fine so he’s likely to give his running but he could be slightly vulnerable to something more well in.
Pearle d’Or
David O’Meara’s 5yo has been sat in my tracker for a year now but he just hasn’t had his ground. When he got some cut in the ground last season he soon registered form figures of 2131, in some decent handicaps, not always getting the run of the race.
The best of those performances came in heavy ground at Newbury, proving that it’s probably a case of the softer the better for him, but he was also an excellent 3rd over this course and distance in a big class 2 handicap on good ground off a mark of 90, winning the race on his side.
This season so far, he’s run on good, good, good and good to firm respectively. He probably needed his reappearance run and that ground on an undulating track like Newmarket definitely wouldn’t have suited. He was also up against a pace bias that day too so a big line can be drawn through that effort.
His three runs since give him a good chance in this though. The first of those came in the Victoria Cup here and 10th of 21 doesn’t get near to telling the whole story. He was sent off favourite and traveled smoothly into contention but his finishing effort was compromised by the ground and also how far towards the middle of the track he challenged.
He dropped down to a class 3 next time and again traveled really well and again didn’t quite see it out as well as he might have given the ground was much faster than ideal. That also wasn’t a well run race so to finish 4th, beaten just a length, was a good effort. It was a similar case last time out, on even faster ground at Newbury, and given the 1st and 2nd both won shortly after that looks another good effort.
He should relish the softer conditions here and he has an excellent record over course and distance. He’s been off the track a couple of months which is a slight worry but that’s presumably because of the fast ground.
Thunder Blue
A bit more exposed than the other 3yos but he brings a solid level of proven form into this, finishing 3rd and 2nd in good handicaps recently.
He’s undoubtedly capable of winning a half decent race before the season is out but he looks best as a fast ground sprinter for now. He underperformed when tackling good to soft at Newmarket in July and he hasn’t got home on his two tries at 7f to date (for all there were other excuses in those races). If the distance doesn’t catch him out here, the ground almost certainly will and he’s very opposable given the combination of distance and going.
Dark Thirty
Started the season well but his form has completely tailed off with five duck eggs next to his name now. He’s generally had pretty much favourable conditions so there is no obvious reason that he should bounce back here other than how well in he is, but that was also the case, to an extent, last time out when beating just four rivals home at York.
I’ve always thought he was better on decent ground too so rain adds another probable negative.
Ararat
He hasn’t stood a huge amount of racing and he hasn’t been the most consistent in four runs this season, although he has run well twice including a win last time out. It has to be said that he’s been very well placed during the races he’s run well in, especially when making all at Chelmsford in a small field recently.
This is a drop in grade but that last race was a class 2 in name only and he’s now 5lbs higher here (and even worse off with anything rated 88 or 89 given this is a Classified Stakes).
He was 2nd on racecourse debut on good to soft but underperformed on the same ground next time out and has only run on better ground since so there are question marks if and when the ground softens.
Look Back Smiling
One of the few horses in the race who the ground probably won’t be soft enough for, given he’s happy on soft/heavy. Gemma Tutty’s 4yo was poorly placed and found the ground too quick last time out at York but he’s better judged on his previous 2nd in a class 2 handicap at Thirsk. That form hasn’t really worked out though and he’s now 6lbs higher than when winning the Lincoln consolation race, first time out this season, in soft ground.
He’s a previous 7f winner but he’s probably better at a mile these days, unless the ground comes up really testing in which case this might feel more like a mile race. He’s entitled to run at least okay but the most likely scenario is that he plugs on into about 4th or maybe 3rd (depending if others fail to give their running on softer ground).
Mustajaab
Yet to get within 3 lengths of the winner in turf handicaps and has only beaten one rival home in his last two starts on grass. Conversely, he’s two from two on the all weather (both wins at Southwell) and he’s back on his last winning mark from there. He is probably better on softer turf than faster turf so could perhaps outrun his odds but he’s unlikely to be troubling the judge until he returns to artificial surfaces. If this race was being run at Southwell he’d have been quite interesting.
Lord Bertie
Hasn’t been seen since January and didn’t beat a rival home in either of his starts in that month, although he did run well in a Chelmsford handicap on stable debut in December and could be competitive on that form.
All his runs for his current yard have come on the all weather but he won a soft ground novice for William Haggas by 12 lengths last season, albeit a very poor race. He has plenty of questions to answer after an absence but conditions should be fine and he could be competitive if back to his best so he looks difficult to predict. It will be interesting to see which way he goes in the market, especially closer to the off and it’s possible he could get an uncontested lead.
Summary
Hopefully this will be a well enough run race. Lord Bertie is the obvious one to go forward, he’s made the running at a decent pace on his last two racecourse outings, but after an absence who knows what will happen with him.
Ararat made the running last time but is probably more likely to sit just off the pace and the same can probably be said about Harvard Sound. If Lord Bertie goes forward it should be run at an honest gallop, if he doesn’t then there might not be much pace.
Going with proven softer ground form looks crucial here which makes the shortlist United Approach, Pearle d’Or and Look Back Smiling (ignoring the two outsiders who should handle it but don’t look in good enough form).
The latter is probably better over an extra furlong and this looks a tough ask for him against some unexposed rivals so United Approach and Pearle d’Or are probably the rock solid ones.
Whilst United Approach has the sexier profile of the pair, there seem to be few runs that strongly point towards United Approach being well enough in here. PEARLE D’OR on the other hand, ran a blinder here on his final run of last season in what was likely a stronger race than this, off the ceiling rating for this race of 90. He’s proven with cut in the ground, very much proven at Ascot (which is a massive bonus) and has been running well this season on ground that looked far too fast for him.
It’s difficult to be massively confident about him as he runs against some good opposition but the ground could be a massive leveler and I’d expect him to place at least.
At the time of writing, only William Hill have priced this race up and he’s an 11/2 shot, which looks fair. I do worry that with drastically changing ground, and several runners who are unproven on anything softer than good, there could be plenty of withdrawals. An each way bet at this sort of price is a sound strategy but perhaps it might be best to back win only and then back place only on Betfair Exchange, where if there are three or more non runners you’ll still get paid out on 3rd.
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