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RacingBetter News |
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| Friday 21st August 2024 | ||
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Friday Freebie: Irish Raider Can Land York Handicap At Big Price
Another profitable preview last week with Garden Oasis finishing 2nd and I think we were very unlucky not to get the win. I thought he should have been around a 3/1 shot for the race so I was gobsmacked when 13/2 was available early and I ended up going in pretty hard each way at that price.
In the race itself, he had to work hard to get to the lead from his wide draw early on but once he got there he was able to pretty much dictate on his own terms. He came off the bridle 3f out but he stuck on really well and he was just headed in the final strides by Signcastle City, who was the other horse that raced up with the pace. You have to think that if Garden Oasis had been drawn a bit lower and not had to work quite so hard to get to the lead that he would have held on.
This Week’s Race
The brilliant York Ebor Festival moves into its 3rd day on Friday and this will of course be my focus.
I was keen on a few on Friday, in various races, but the draw has compromised one of those so it’s the opening race, the 1.50pm at York, that I’ll be going through here.
This is a 12f, class 2 handicap and hopefully it’s not impossible to solve as it’s only attracted 13 runners rather than the maximum field of 20. As it’s not the biggest field, I’ll go through each of the runners in market order.
York Pointers
York can be a strong pace favouring track at several distances but the 12f course is one of the fairest, with front runners slightly underperforming and the rest of the field having a relatively equal chance of winning.
There is also little to no draw bias over this trip which hopefully means the best horse wins.
The Runners
In early betting order:
Wafei
Lightly raced 3yo who seemed to improve for being gelded in the Spring. He won a Hamilton maiden by 9.5 lengths at odds of 1/5, beating very moderate opposition, before finishing 2nd in a class 3 handicap at Glorious Goodwood.
He’s only had five starts to date and goes up in trip by a furlong here so he’s obviously open to improvement but he definitely needs to improve based on what he’s shown on the track so far. The race at Goodwood was only a 7 runner race and the 3rd and 4th have been beaten by further since than the distance beaten at Goodwood, which sets off alarm bells about the strength of that form.
He’s impossible to rule out given his profile but he looks a poor price on form shown to date and seems to be quite opposable.
Shadow Dance
Roger Varian’s 4yo is still unexposed after just 7 starts and he bounced back from a poor seasonal debut at Royal Ascot by finishing 2nd at Ripon last time out.
He certainly looks well handicapped on his 3yo form still. His final run of last season came in the Old Rowley Cup, traditionally one of the stronger 3yo races run all season, and he was an excellent 2nd in that race. The winner has since won a Group 3 and the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th all finished either 1st or 2nd on their next start.
Shadow Dance is 7lbs higher here though and that run did come on soft ground. His trainer is on record as saying he wants softer ground and his poor run at Ascot came on fast ground. The ground was on the soft side of good when he returned to form last time at Ripon and even with likely overnight rain, the ground will still probably be far faster than ideal here. He’s got a massive chance on form but is opposable on ground this fast.
Mr Monaco
Relatively lightly raced 3yo that seems to enjoy fast ground. It took him four attempts to get off the mark this season but he was impressive last time out at Sandown, beating a likely well handicapped rival by 4 lengths.
He was a good 3rd in what is usually a hot handicap at Newmarket’s July Meeting on his penultimate start but that race hasn’t been working out particularly well so it’s perhaps a little surprising he was sent off such a short priced favourite last time out, although he more than justified those odds. He did get the run of the race and because he won by such a wide margin, he’s now 7lbs higher here. On the balance of his form you wouldn’t particularly fancy him for this and he has to prove his stamina now over an extra couple of furlongs. He’s opposable overall as he needs to improve for the extra trip, not just stay it.
Grey Cuban
Another 3yo who needs to prove his stamina. This front runner/prominent racer has taken well to a hood, winning two small field handicaps around Chester. He’s had the run of the race in both of those contests, hasn’t beaten much and has gone up a total of 10lbs for those victories which would be a concern.
Another slight concern is very fast ground, as he’s shown his best form on good or softer going. He’s one of a few in here that will probably be hoping the overnight rain amounts to more than what is forecast.
In terms of prospects of staying this trip, connections were running him over trips short of a mile in the Spring so they seemingly didn’t see him as a middle distance horse at that point. His sire was a sprinter but his dam stayed 1m6f so he does have claims of staying this distance, but there are question marks over how well handicapped he is now.
Lieber Power
A likeable sort who is beginning to look a little exposed but he’s been in excellent form, finishing 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd on his last four starts. He’s only 1lb higher than the most recent of those runs, where he was only beaten a neck, so he has to be of some interest given he’s 4lbs well in here.
He seemed to relish softer ground on his penultimate start at Chepstow, no surprise given he’s by Cracksman, and he was value for further than the winning margin that day having not had a clear run. He’s not completely ground dependent though, running a progressive rival close last week on good to firm (front two pulled clear of the 3rd).
The form of his races haven’t been working out especially well and he now steps up in grade but he’s officially well handicapped and should get the race run to suit here so he’s a solid contender.
Derry Lad
Back in May, I tipped Bolster in one of these previews to win at Epsom on Oaks day and in that preview I spoke very highly of Derry Lad. I was concerned about softer ground that day but he ran an absolute cracker to finish 3rd, very unlucky in the run and poorly positioned, behind our winner who made all.
That race has been working out nicely with the 2nd, 4th and 5th all winning handicaps since and Derry Lad was very much the one to take from that race and he’s only 1lb higher here.
That’s not the only piece of hot form he offers. Last summer he won two very strong handicaps on the bounce at Hamilton and Pontefract. Both produced several future winners, the Pontefract win especially good with the runner up winning the Old Newton Cup next time out and the 3rd and 4th also winning next time. That win came on fast ground over this trip of a mile and a half, but he’s done most of his running over shorter and on softer ground, leaving him unexposed at longer trips (and on better ground).
He’s got a little bit to prove here having been beaten by 34 lengths at Galway last time out but the ground turned very soft that day and he was badly drawn. He also ran poorly on seasonal debut on soft ground but bounced back on better ground next time, running on late into 3rd over an inadequate mile. It’s likely he’ll bounce back to form again here with conditions seemingly in his favour.
As a 6yo, he’s definitely vulnerable to some of the more lightly raced rivals but he does bring a level of form into this that many of those more lightly raced runners don’t.
Insanity
In excellent form at the moment with form figures of 121 in his last three races. He’s yet to run on good to firm ground but it was on the fast side at Ascot last time out when described as ‘good’.
The proximity and profile of the runner up when he won at the Shergar Cup meeting last time out suggests it wasn’t a particularly strong race for the grade and he’s 4lbs higher here so he does need to step up again, although that is possible on what will be just his 10th start.
He does seem to have a good attitude and that could stand him in good stead for a battle up the long straight here and he’s perhaps a bit overpriced for this at double figure odds, for all it’s difficult to point to his form lines and suggest they are especially strong.
Euchen Glen
The 11yo veteran has won a John Smith’s Cup here, as well as a Group 3, and proved he still has it last time out when a slightly unlucky in running 4th in a similar quality handicap to this at Goodwood over two furlongs further.
The majority of his runs have come with cut in the ground but he handles faster ground and his win earlier this season at Ayr came on good to firm. He was also 4th on fast ground in last year’s Ebor here off a 4lb higher mark so he has plenty of form claims.
My main worry is the speed requirement for 12f here on fast ground. His best runs have all come either on softer ground or over further, especially as he’s got older. On good or softer ground he’d make plenty of appeal and over a bit further he’d be interesting but he just might get tapped for toe in conditions before staying on. He’s a very fair price though.
Dark Moon Rising
This 5yo beat a couple of future winners at Hamilton in June and was only narrowly beaten by a small field specialist at Ayr last time out. He also won over course and distance last year off a 3lbs lower mark so he certainly has claims to be competitive.
The negatives are that he’s never won off a mark this high and he had his limitations exposed when 8th in this race off a 1lb higher mark last season. He comes here in form but is likely to find this too tough again so he’ll probably give his running and finish roughly in mid division.
Dream Harder
Chased Insanity home at Ascot earlier this month but is 3lbs higher here and unlikely to reverse the form on these terms.
He’s done all his winning either at Chester or on the all weather but he was 2nd here in a big field last year on fast ground. He’s been held off marks similar to this for a year though and just as he was becoming better handicapped, he’s gone up for getting beaten so he definitely looks vulnerable here, especially on faster ground with his best turf form coming with plenty of cut underfoot.
Law Of The Sea
A surprising entrant for this considering he does most of his racing over 2m+. He’s been very inconsistent even over his favoured trips over the past year or so and he’s never really shown enough speed to look like he can be competitive at a mile and a half so it’s difficult to see him figuring here.
Qitaal
Pretty consistent this season and has often shaped as though he has a race in him off this mark, but he’s been held by the handicapper since he went into marks in the low 80s after winning first time up this season in soft ground over 10f.
He wouldn’t be the first Johnston horse to win a big handicap at a big price and he did run well last time out but he doesn’t look sure to stay this trip and his best runs have come on softer ground so he’s opposable here, for all I think I can land a 10f, soft ground handicap in the Autumn off a similar mark.
Track Of Time
The biggest price of Ian Williams’ three outsiders in this. He’s been well enough beaten in all three starts for the trainer but he’s been getting closer each time and he was poorly placed when ‘only’ beaten 6.25 lengths in a strong race at Goodwood last time out. It’s difficult to see him progressing enough to win but he’s possibly the more likely of the trainer’s trio to outrun his odds.
Summary
There are several in with chances in this competitive handicap but I’m against many of those near the head of the betting on the basis of what value they offer.
The 3yo trio of Wafei, Mr Monaco and Grey Cuban have all been running well in races that don’t look especially strong and whilst they are all open to improvement, especially with all three stepping up in trip, they all have some question marks and don’t interest me at the prices.
Shadow Dance is quite high on my list to back when conditions are right but I don’t think he’ll be at his best on fast ground and if enough rain doesn’t materialise overnight he might end up a non runner.
Lieber Power is a very fair price and I wouldn’t put anyone off an each way on him. I don’t think he’ll win but I could easily see him running into a place and he can certainly defy this sort of mark on softer ground soon. Meanwhile Insanity and Euchen Glen can’t be confidently ruled out and I’d rather back them each way than any of the market leaders.
The selection though is DERRY LAD, who has been on my radar for over a year now but just hasn’t had enough suitable opportunities in that time, often running on the wrong ground and/or at the wrong trip. He’s a massive player in this based on his Pontefract run a year ago and also his Epsom run on his penultimate start and although he has a poor run last time out to overcome, he had definite excuses that day and can fare better here on nicer ground. At 12/1 at the time of writing he looks a value each way bet in this race.
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