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RacingBetter News |
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| Saturday 17th August 2024 | ||
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Saturday Sizzler: Course Win Number 7 Could Be On The Cards For Ripon Specialist
A profitable preview last week with the recommended each way selection, Equiano Springs, filling the frame. He never looked like winning having been outpaced at the half way point but it was a real front runners’ race with the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th all up there early on. The way Equiano Springs finished, to be beaten just a length in the end, suggests he’s very much ready to win and his best chance of a victory might be to find a fast ground race on the Rowley Mile Course when they switch back to racing there, as the front runner bias shouldn’t be quite as strong as it’s been on the July Course.
This Week’s Race
I recommended no bets to members on Friday as the racing was relatively poor so I turn my attention to Saturday for this week’s column.
There are some decent enough handicaps on offer at Newmarket and Newbury but Ripon is likely to be the venue where my bet of the day comes from this weekend. It’s Great St Wilfrid day but I didn’t fancy anything in their feature race, despite the fact that cliff horse Summerghand will get his ground and is so well handicapped these days.
Instead, I’m looking at the 3.50 at Ripon on Saturday, which is a class 4 handicap that will be run over one mile. With this being only a 9 runner race I’ll go through each of the runners before coming up with a bet.
Ripon Pointers
Ripon is one of the best courses in the UK for front runners, over a variety of trips, and certainly over a mile on fast ground. It’s a course where the further back you are, the less likely you are to win and those held up right out the back very rarely win.
On fast ground there is a slight bias towards lower drawn horses, even in smaller fields.
The Runners
In racecard order:
Signcastle City
He’s had a decent enough season, winning twice, showing his versatility with a soft ground mile win and a fast ground 7f victory. He’s not badly handicapped either as he was runner up on his penultimate outing off just a 1lb lower mark.
He does have to bounce back from a quite poor run at Goodwood but it’s entirely possible he was unsuited by the course on that occasion.
That 2nd on his penultimate outing has worked out pretty well with the 3rd and 4th both winning since and how well he runs is probably going to come down to how he’s ridden. He often races in midfield, which is likely to leave him poorly placed in this, but he was ridden prominently when successful at Bath over this trip earlier this season and if he tracks the early pace in this it would be no surprise to see him finish in the money, potentially at a decent price after his flop last time out.
Al Muqdad
A well drawn, in form runner who is likely to be very near to the head of the betting for this. He’s been extremely consistent in recent runs, finishing in the top four in each of his last eight races.
He was last seen finishing a good 2nd, staying on well over 7f against a better placed rival. He definitely has the form to be competitive here, his last win coming off a 5lb lower mark but beating a subsequent winner into 2nd on that occasion.
There are a couple of potential big problems here though. Firstly, all his wins have come at 7f. He was 3rd in a Racing League fixture at Yarmouth a couple of starts back over a mile but that was a steadily run race and he was still beaten over 3 lengths on that occasion. An even bigger problem though could be run style. Even if he stays the mile, he’s often held up and that could leave him with a stiff task here. He’s been ridden prominently on a few occasions but if David Nolan rides him prominently from a good draw here, it’s likely to test his stamina further and he’d probably be unlikely to see this out.
With that in mind, he’s an excellent horse to have in this field as he has the credentials on paper but is likely to find conditions conspiring against him, meaning he can be relatively confidently opposed whilst also helping make the market for something else.
On The River
A course and distance winner on his penultimate start, this 5yo put in a career best last time out when 4th in a class 2 handicap at Thirsk
The problem for On The River though could be the ground. It’s only ‘good’ at the time of writing, and it tends to be a well watered course, but Friday looks to be a very much drying day and Saturday will only add to that, so it should be good to firm in places at the very least. His wins have all come with cut in the ground and he was beaten 5 lengths off a 1lb lower mark on his penultimate start on good to firm ground, which would be a big worry for his backers.
The ground is the only thing not to like and on genuinely good (or softer) ground he’d be likely to run very well. However the more the ground dries out, the more his chance could be compromised.
Scottish Summit
A talented horse on his day but difficult to win with at the best of times and on the decline now at the age of 11.
He’s enjoyed a bit of cut in the ground in recent years and tends to come from the back of the field so a fast ground race around Ripon is unlikely to play to his strengths. He’s been running okay in defeat recently and will probably find a race again this season but conditions are probably against him in this.
Eagle Day
Won back to back races in late June/early July but has barely beaten a horse home in two well below par runs since.
He’s only been dropped 1lb for those two runs which seemingly gives him plenty to do here and there is a suspicion he’s a slightly better horse on the all weather so it would be a concern that he’s 7lbs higher than his one and only turf victory.
He has plenty to prove right now and doesn’t appeal here but he certainly looks capable of taking advantage of this sort of mark back on synthetics so he’s worth keeping an eye on with that in mind.
Garden Oasis
A real favourite of mine, who I’ve been backing since his 3yo days back in 2018! The great thing about this horse is he just tends to run very well when conditions are right and he’ll often run poorly when they aren’t. He always needs his first run of the season but he loves a mile and fast ground and he especially loves it here at Ripon, where he’s won no fewer than five times and finished in the first three a further seven times.
In fact, outside of class 2 company or seasonal debuts, his form figures over a mile here on good or better ground read 11213111, which is quite the record.
I tipped this horse when he won here in June and based on that effort (despite winning) I wouldn’t have necessarily been interested in backing him up in grade off a 9lb higher mark but his form since certainly suggests he might be up to landing this.
He was a close 3rd over 10f here on good to soft ground on his next start and whilst he definitely loves this course, he doesn’t love 10f or softer ground so that was an excellent effort. He backed that up with a 2nd at Carlisle, a course he’s never run especially well at.
Based on those two runs it was no shock that he won next time out, returned to this course and distance, landing that race by just a short head off a 6lb lower mark. That effort can be marked up as he was taken on the for lead that day, which wouldn’t have really helped him, and the 2nd and 4th both won next time out suggesting that was a pretty decent race.
Next time he’d finish a head behind On The River in 2nd over course and distance and that run came off a 1lb lower mark, proving he can do it off this sort of mark. The key point about that defeat is that it came on good to soft ground so you’d expect him to run even better here on faster ground, and reverse that form with On The River now 1lb better off as well. The fact that On The River ran so well next time in a class 2 and the 4th has come out and won since gives that form some real substance.
Garden Oasis has had one more run since, at Pontefract, but again he was taken on for the lead so he did pretty well to stick on for 3rd. That run should help with his price a little.
The combination of decent ground and a mile around here should see him back to his best and crucially, he shouldn’t face much, if any competition for the lead which is always a major angle for backing him. His draw in stall 9 isn’t absolutely ideal but early leaders from high draws have an excellent record so if he gets an uncontested lead here he should be very difficult to peg back.
Park Street
In decent enough form this season, better than the bare result on a couple of occasions, but he tends to show his very best form at Beverley and is usually held up which will likely make his life very difficult here.
He went close off this mark a week ago at Redcar, proving he can do it away from Beverley, so he’s not without a chance here but the suspicion is that he’ll be undone by a course bias here. He’d have been much more likeable at a fairer track.
William Dewhirst
In no sort of form for the best part of a year, barely beating a rival on his last four visits to a racecourse. He’s been campaigned over shorter and this step up in trip is far from likely to bring about improvement and it will certainly need to do so for him to play a part.
His better runs have come with cut in the ground and his run style is another question mark, as is his tendency to hang under pressure in his races. It’s very difficult to make a case for him running well.
Retraction
This lightly raced 4yo hasn’t run at all badly in two runs for Ruth Carr this season, although his stable debut was a slightly better effort than his more recent run. He’s been off for the best part of 6 months now and his best turf effort came on heavy so he has plenty of questions to answer and is another that is difficult to fancy for this, for all he has better claims than William Dewhirst.
Summary
I very much like the look of course specialist GARDEN OASIS here. Fastish ground here over this trip is ideal, especially when not facing much competition for the early lead.
He won a class 4 handicap last season off a 2lb lower mark, and would have won that carrying 2lbs more, and that didn’t even come at his beloved Ripon. At his peak he was a class 2 winner off an 8lbs higher mark but more recently he was narrowly beaten here off a 1lb lower mark in this grade and on that occasion he was facing competition for the lead on ground that was softer than ideal.
On good or better ground here he rates a decent bet and I’d be even more confident if he has an uncontested lead after a furlong (note for in running punters).
Al Muqdad and Park Street would be big dangers on form but both could find the run of the race against them here, and Al Muqdad has some stamina doubts against him. With that in mind the bigger dangers could come from Signcastle City and On The River.
The former has a chance of playing a part if ridden prominently but is very opposable if held up. Unfortunately we won’t know how he’ll be ridden until the race starts. As for On The River, if the ground is no faster than good all over he’d be quite strongly fancied to follow Garden Oasis home but the faster the ground gets, the more the gap should open between the pair and the more likely it is that others could pass him.
In terms of the market here, I’m expecting an early order along the lines of Garden Oasis, Al Muqdad, Park Street, On The River and then Signcastle City as the first five in the betting. I make Garden Oasis the 5/2 favourite in this but I’m hoping the bookies go with Al Muqdad as an early favourite and perhaps we get 7/2 on the selection. I’d be reluctant to get involved at anything lower than 9/4, but I think we might get 3/1+ when the market opens.
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