 |
RacingBetter News |
|
| Friday 26th July 2024 | ||
|
Friday Freebie: Back To Form Lyndon Ready To Strike
No column last week but in the previous article I’d mentioned that we were
overdue a winner and thankfully Dreamrocker provided that with a relatively
comfortable success at Ascot. She still looks fairly handicapped after a 4lb
rise for that success and should be considered again next time if the race
looks likely to set up for the closers.
This Week’s Race
The racing is by no means terrible this Friday but it’s not great either,
with many of the better handicappers being saved for Goodwood next week.
Some of the better handicaps, particularly those at York, look a bit
‘impossible’ (and that’s coming from someone who likes impossible handicaps) so
it’s probably a minimum stakes day. The best wager could come in a slightly
less competitive race, in particular the 8.10pm at Sandown which is a
1m, class 4 handicap.
Sandown Pointers
The ground should be on the fast side for this meeting, despite there being
some spots of rain about, and front runners can sometimes slip the field on
faster ground over a mile here in this sort of field size. Other than that,
there is no significant advantage or disadvantage in what position you hold in
the field early on.
Higher draws tend to perform best as there are often significant traffic
problems on the rail and by the time the lower draws get a clear run, the race
can already be over.
Many In Form Runners Clash
This is a 10 runner race, so not the biggest field, but it’s a competitive
race none the less with all but one of these arriving in decent enough form. The
outlier is Island Bandit who is a three time course and distance winner,
but despite barely beating a runner home in the last 8 months, he arrives here
2lbs higher than his previous highest winning mark. He’s entitled to come on
for his first run in four months at Goodwood last month but a win does look
pretty unlikely in this.
Early Market Will Be Interesting
It’s always interesting to see how the bookies judge a race like this where so
many runners seem to have some sort of chance. There is no early betting at
the time of writing but I’d imagine you’ll be able to throw a blanket over the
first four or five in the betting when prices first come through.
Whitcombe Rockster would look a sensible horse to install as market
leader. He’s won three of his last four (two of those wins coming in
comfortable fashion, including his most recent victory). All those wins have
come at Kempton but his recent improvement can’t just be attributed to liking
that venue as this time last year he was getting beaten over that same course
and distance off a 15lb lower mark than this.
He’s clearly just an improved horse this year and there are no massive worries
about his ability to act on turf as he’s won over 10f previous here at Sandown.
He’s still only had 12 racecourse outings and it’s impossible to tell where
this improvement might stop but he has run poorly in his other five turf starts
which would be a concern.
Whitcombe Rockster isn’t the only easy last time out winner to contend with
here, Love De Vega won even more cosily at Pontefract on his most recent
run. Any horse that wins by 3.5 lengths is going to have to be pretty prominent
in the betting but at the same time, he did get the run of the race at
Pontefract.
He runs here off a mark of 87 but will running off 89 in the future and
although he’s never won off higher than 84 in the past, he was clearly suited
by the step up to a mile last time out and he remains open to further
improvement at a mile. He does tend to only win in single digit field sizes at
front runner friendly tracks so he wouldn’t be the strongest betting
proposition here, for all he’s respected.
War Chant will need to be near the head of the betting given he’s won 4
of his last 8 and ran very well in defeat last time out when 3rd at Doncaster.
The 4th has already come out of that race and won and the 1st and 2nd both
clash again at Yarmouth on Thursday evening so a win for either Havanarama or
Naepoint would give another boost to War Chant’s form.
Indemnity is another who has to be strongly considered in the betting.
Any lightly raced, Roger Varian trained 4yo that has finished in the first two
in 5 of his 7 runs is going to be near to favouritism. He wears first time
cheekpieces though, which may bring about improvement but there must also be a
massive chance he goes backwards in the headgear, as many do. He’s also been
held off lower marks in handicaps this season and is unproven on fast ground so
he definitely does need to improve to land this.
Game Set and Good Karma are two other lightly raced 4yos in this
but there are doubts about the trip for that pair. Both look feasibly
handicapped, so they are likely to be well considered in the betting, if not in
the first three or four, but Good Karma very much looks to be at his best over
7f and Game Set has so far failed to stay a mile and even looks worth a go over
6f.
There Could Be One Of Interest At A Bigger Price
Lyndon B could go slightly overlooked here. As a 4yo he was running off
marks in the high 90s and although not at that level anymore, even last year he
was running very well off 88 and two years ago he was winning off 82 in a
higher grade than this.
On his 2022 form he’d likely win this comfortably and there is good reason to
think he could run fairly close to that level here. He’s very much a fast
ground horse, with all four of his career wins coming on good to firm ground.
Until recently, he hadn’t run on good to firm ground since he last won almost
two years ago.
Last season he needed his first run of the season and then very much ran to
form on good ground at Newbury behind some improvers off a mark of 88 (he’s
10lbs lower now). He’d only manage two more runs that season with a decent
effort on good to soft next time out followed by a poor run off the back of a
break at Ascot.
After that poor Ascot run he wasn’t seen for 236 days and he showed very little
in his first two starts of this season. Dropped back to 7f at Chepstow on his
third run this season, he had fast ground for the first time in 22 months and
he ran a very good 5th, not getting the run of the race and connections
reported to the stewards that he didn’t enjoy the course.
He went back up to a mile last time out at Windsor and whilst the race
officially took place on good ground, it was pouring down at the time and the
ground was immediately changed to good to soft after the race. For Lyndon B to
finish 4th on that ground, beaten just 1.75 lengths in a race where the pace
held up, suggests he was running as well as he has done in the past couple of
years.
He’s clearly become well handicapped and has put two good runs together in less
than ideal conditions. He gets his ground here and two of his last three wins
have come over this course and distance.
Another factor in his favour is a likely strong pace. War Chant, Lessay and
Island Bandit all seem happy going forward and Love De Vega usually applies
some pressure to the leaders too so this will hopefully be run at a good
gallop.
Lyndon B’s low draw might not be ideal, but he tends to be slowly away and
he’ll likely be dropped out in last. I’d have preferred an experienced jockey
rather than an apprentice but if he’s dead last turning for home, he should be
able to easily switch outside to get a clear run, rather than getting stuck on
the rail.
Remaining Pair Look Opposable
Lessay and Planetadream complete the field. The former is the
sole 3yo in the field and whilst he hasn’t been running badly, he doesn’t look
especially well handicapped and, given his keenness, doesn’t look an obvious
candidate to stay a mile. The latter is getting on a bit now but this 9yo
proved he still has it by finishing a good runner up at Kempton last time. He
runs off his lower turf mark here but hasn’t run for 159 days and that’s a
concern at his age.
Summary
It will be interesting to see how Whitcombe Rockstar performs on his
return to turf and it’s probably a toss of a coin as to whether or not he
translates that improvement back to fast ground.
Meanwhile Love De Vega is one of the more likely winners now that he’s
proven his stamina for this trip but he has a few questions to answer if this
is a well run race in a bigger field than he normally likes.
Depending on how the pair who beat War Chant last time out run at
Yarmouth on Thursday, he’d potentially be a solid bet for this if his form is
franked further, but he does look the type to potentially find one or two too
good in this.
Backing LYNDON B is not without risk and despite the likelihood he’ll be
an each way price, given the chance of a lack of luck in running he appeals more
as a win only bet. It seems likely there will be a good five or six runners
shorter than him in the betting so I’d hope we can get 8/1+ on the selection,
with a decent chance of a double figure price.
He’ll be able to run in weaker races than this soon but this does look winnable
and if he doesn’t get his head in front here, it looks likely he can win a race
before the summer is out as long as the ground is riding on the quick side.
Sam Darby - Winning Post Profits
Don’t Miss A Bet – Profit Guarantee Offer
I don’t quite go into this level of detail for each tip I provide with my professional service but my write ups are very similar in style with a deep level of analysis.
If you want this sort of info on a daily basis you can CLICK HERE TO REGISTER for my service, with a profit guarantee. If my tips don’t make a profit at advised prices in your first month (31 days) with the service you can just email admin@surewin.co.uk and they’ll give you your 2nd month completely free.
Check out my full results history on SureWin, bet by bet, by clicking here. Note that these results can sometimes run a couple of weeks behind present day.
Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so any prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.
