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RacingBetter News |
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| Friday 12th July 2024 | ||
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Friday Freebie: Sweet Dream In Ascot Mile Handicap
It was softer than expected last week at Sandown and I’m not entirely sure if it was that or early keenness that cost Classic, most likely the latter. He remains well handicapped and I think he can win on good or good to soft ground in the very near future.
It’s a bit of a lean spell for this column at the minute, a far cry from this time last year when there were several winners at nice prices. We’re overdue one that even runs to form at the moment!
This Week’s Race
This is one of the more handicap rich Friday’s in the flat racing calendar, in line with the offerings on ‘Super Saturday’. There are some really nice, competitive fields to choose from so hopefully I’m going to pick the right race here.
This week’s preview will cover the 2.15pm at Ascot, which is a one mile class 4 apprentice handicap.
Ascot Pointers
There shouldn’t be much of a draw bias in this sized field, although it can sometimes be an advantage to be hard up against the stands’ side rail in these kinds of races here.
In terms of pace, in big fields on fast ground, it’s a normally a substantial advantage to be patiently ridden. This is a smaller field though and the ground is likely to be on the soft side but it’s a similar story with hold up performers doing best. There have been meetings here on testing ground though, like Champions’ Day last season, where it’s almost impossible to make up ground. At this time of year that’s unlikely to be the case though.
Competitive Race Hopefully Means Competitive Prices
At least five of these runners can very much be considered ‘in form’, which will hopefully result in an open feel to the early betting.
The ground on the straight course is good to soft, soft in places at the time of writing, with another day of drying ground ahead. That means we’ll likely be looking at good to soft (maybe good in places) ground come off time.
Dreamrocker Has Massive Chance After Luckless Runs
Ed Walker’s Dreamrocker remains an unexposed 4yo after just six career runs and she’s of major interest based on the most recent two racecourse appearances.
She evidently needed her reappearance when fairly well beaten in an above average class 4 handicap at Yarmouth in April and after skipping a fast ground Newmarket handicap on account of the ground she ran a career best dropping back to 7f at York on good to soft ground.
She stayed on from an uncompromising position in that race to finish 3rd. Considering how that race has worked out, she looks generously treated running off the same mark of 71 now. The winner of that race would finish 2nd next time out, only finding a subsequent winning handicap blot too good, pulling clear of the 3rd. The runner up would win next time out, as would the 5th, with the 4th winning on his second run since. Dreamrocker was the only horse making up any ground on the winner in the final furlong.
Stepping back up to a mile last time out, it might have seemed disappointing that Dreamrocker wasn’t able to take advantage of an unchanged mark but that doesn’t tell half the story. Turning for home at Goodwood, again on good to soft ground, she must have been 20 lengths off the early gallop. In the final furlong she passed all but the winner under tender handling from her amateur rider and it’s remarkable how close she went to a well handicapped winner given her early position.
She moves from an amateur riders’ race to an apprentice riders’ contest here which should guarantee a better ride and with the ground and a likely decent pace in her favour this looks her best chance of a win so far this season.
Recent Winners Will Hopefully Help Make The Market
Given how eyecatching Dreamrocker has been at the finish on recent starts, we’re going to need some others with a realistic chance of winning to ensure she’s a price.
Stockpyle has won his last two starts, including a mile win at Chepstow last time out by 2 lengths on good to soft ground. His wins have come off 75, 75, 73 and 75 so surely he doesn’t have much wiggle room now that he’s up in grade running off 82 but the manner of that latest win should ensure he’s near the head of the betting.
Powdering may have only finished 4th on her most recent start but she was only beaten a length in that contest and it looked a career all weather best (she’s better on turf). She’s won her last three on grass with considerable ease and returning to turf here, she’ll likely put in an improved performance. She’ll need to as she’s another 3lbs higher now. She’s done most of her winning over shorter trips, in lower grades, off lower marks, so she might well get found out here but as nothing has got near her on her last three turf runs, it’s difficult to tell where her ceiling lies.
One of the main form rivals to Dreamrocker has to be Leuven Power, who ran well in a hot race on his penultimate outing before finding a well handicapped rival too good last time out at Salisbury. He’s undoubtedly well handicapped himself but all his best form is on fast ground and he’s been pulled out because of soft ground previously so there have to be massive question marks about his ability to run to form in conditions.
Desfondado has won two of his last four but both of those wins came on the all weather and he’s been much less convincing on his two turf runs that were sandwiched between those victories. He’s unlikely to be much of a threat here but could be fairly prominent in the betting before likely drifting out.
Botas was behind Desfondado on the all weather last time but does have some okay turf form to his name and he’s proven in softer conditions. He was beaten 8 lengths on his most recent turf run (penultimate start) but that’s slightly misleading as he was 2nd to a very easy winner, still beating six other rivals himself. He’s won off 77 and 78 in the UK and his May win means he’s still rated 81 which is likely to keep him out of the winners’ enclosure here.
Remainder Have Question Marks
Baltimore Boy only beat one rival home on soft ground last time out at Yarmouth and was behind Botas at Kempton before that (not weighted to reverse form with that rival). What is perhaps most interesting about this runner though is his record here at Ascot. He was runner up to a course specialist in a conditions race when rated 90 in similar conditions in 2022 and he followed that up with a decent enough 4th of 15 over course and distance last May. He doesn’t go into this race in much form but he wasn’t in great form when running those two good races here. Backing him would be a massive risk but it’s not inconceivable he outruns his odds. He is yet to win on turf though so doesn’t appeal for win purposes.
Crystal Casque is a course and distance winner but she has run relatively poorly in three of her four visits here. She did win as recently as December off a 5lb lower mark than this and this apprentice has been on board for four of her last six wins so she’s certainly not a no hoper, but she is an infrequent winner these days. She ran very poorly last time out but that was clearly expected as she drifted from 40/1 out to 100/1 before the off.
One of the pace angles here is One Step Beyond. He’s 1lb lower than when 3rd, beaten a less than a length, behind a double subsequent winner over this course and distance in May (on similar ground). He’s of immediate interest based on that form but he has serious questions to answer after an 19 length beating at Goodwood last time out (11 lengths behind Botas). He perhaps didn’t handle the course on that occasion but he’s been massively inconsistent over the past 12 months so, despite a good recent course run, he doesn’t rate a betting prospect. He did win this race a year ago though at 12/1 so perhaps this has been the plan again for some time and a better showing should probably be expected. It would be no surprise if there’s money for him.
Royal Parade was ahead of One Stop Beyond at Goodwood, and a length behind Botas, and he’s since run a good race and a very poor race in his two subsequent runs. His best turf form is on fast ground and he might be better over a sharper test so this probably isn’t the right time to catch him.
Grey Fox completes the line up. He’s a very in and out performer, winning well in a class 5 handicap at Newbury three runs ago and then running terribly on both starts since. He’s fesibly handicapped on older form but all his best turf efforts have come on fast ground so that’s enough of a reason to suggest this will be a third consecutive poor performance.
Summary
There are a couple of front runners in here, namely Stockpyle and One Step Beyond, so there should be a decent pace in a race that could set up for the closers.
Most of the ‘in form’ rivals in this race look opposable, largely because they are stepping into a better race off marks that are likely to prove beyond them.
Although some of those that are likely to be bigger prices have patchy profiles, it’s impossible to rule out the likes of One Step Beyond who looks a plot for this, now running off a 1lb higher mark than when landing this contest 12 months ago, with an excellent course and distance run in the form book just two starts ago. That most recent effort is a bit off putting though.
Meanwhile Baltimore Boy could feasibly bounce back to form at a course he seems to enjoy and he’d likely go very close if reproducing older course and distance efforts.
With the course likely to suit perfectly though, the selection has to be DREAMROCKER. Considering she was given a weak ride last time out at a course she probably didn’t enjoy, a better run can be expected here and a reproduction of her York 3rd, over an inadequate looking 7f, would likely be enough to land this granted luck in running.
The big question mark here is the price. She’s likely to be favourite for this, or perhaps second favourite to Powdering and she should really be getting sent off as market leader if all is well with her. The correct price against this opposition is probably around the 7/2 mark, or maybe marginally shorter. At that price or above, she’s a bet but given her tendency to get behind in her races, I wouldn’t want to be taking anything shorter than 3/1.
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