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	Friday 21st June 2024
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Friday Freebie: Mullins Can Enjoy More Ascot Success In Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes

I was delighted that the rain stayed away at Chester last week but good ground didn’t stop Yippee from running terribly. He looked a bit awkward at times around the tight course and then once headed in the straight he found nothing and went backwards. I’m not sure if the course was the problem or if he was still feeling the effects of his heavy ground run at Leicester but he was way below form and can’t be backed with much confidence next time out unfortunately.

This Week’s Race

My favourite race of Royal Ascot week is the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, a 12f handicap for 4yo+ run on the Friday of the meeting. The race will be run at 4.25pm and that’s what I’ll be going through this week.

Ascot Pointers

There are strong draw and pace biases over the mile and a half trip here and those biases are never taken into account in the market which is why it’s one of my favourite course and distances to have a bet on.

In terms of the draw, the lazy TV pundits will suggest a high draw is a negative but it is a big positive. Just looking back at the past 10 winners of this race, they have been drawn 9, 18, 19, 12, 12, 14, 19, 19, 21, 12.

As for pace biases, it’s typically an advantage to race prominently over 12f here and if you can’t race prominently you want a horse that sits in mid division. It’s difficult to make all in big fields here and horses that are held up on the round course normally struggle to make up enough ground from the back in the relatively short straight.

Mullins Fancied To Come Out On Top

Willie Mullins has an excellent record in the handicaps here and although his winners normally come over longer trips than this, Ethical Diamond does seem to have more than a favourite’s chance in this.

Before joining the powerful Mullins ranks, Ethical Diamond improved enough for the step up from 10f to 12f to land a maiden. He won that race by 2 lengths, giving 5lbs to a filly who would go on to be 94 rated. Given Ethical Diamond now finds himself rated 94, he still looks well handicapped on that run and that’s before you consider any subsequent improvement from gaining further experience and of course joining Willie Mullins.

After that maiden win he changed hands but didn’t cut any ice in three hurdles runs for this yard in very testing ground. Returned to decent ground and the flat though, Ethical Diamond ran an excellent race to finish 2nd (beaten a short head) where he seemed to have his head in front everywhere except the line.

The winner has come out of that race and won, as has the 3rd, so that makes the 5lb rise since more than reasonable and with the step back up to 12f set to bring about further improvement, this runner seems to have pretty much everything going for him.

He tends to want to race prominently and is drawn in stall 18 so should be perfectly positioned by Ryan Moore to strike for home in the straight. He’s never run on ground that will be quite this quick, but neither had Copper Horse Stakes winner Belloccio who also won for Mullins on Tuesday. He ran well on good ground last time out and we’ll just have to have faith in him here on quick ground.

Betting Suggests The Irish Hold The Aces

Next in the betting are Irish trained pair, Crystal Black and Deakin. Only a neck separated the pair when they met over 10f four weeks ago and it’s slightly surprising to see the bookies favouring the winner that day.

Crystal Black has won four of his last five races but they’ve all been over a mile or 10f and there are serious doubts about him getting this trip having shown enough speed to be winning over a mile. He’s also drawn in stall 4 which is likely to compromise his chances further.

Deakin on the other hand, represents last year’s winning trainer and he’s been showing his best form over 12f so to run so well in 2nd last time over 10f is quite an achievement. He’ll improve for going back up to 12f and is drawn in stall 21 so he’s confidently fancied to reverse form with Crystal Black here.

The 3rd and the 8th have come out of that race and won next time out and a few others have run well in defeat since so that was strong form and it’s worth noting that Safecracker also represents that form, having finished 5th in that race. He too will appreciate going back up to this trip and he’s well enough drawn in 11 so a case can definitely be made for him reversing form with Crystal Black too. He tends to be held up in his races though which isn’t an ideal run style and there is a good chance he meets traffic problems when trying to make his challenge. He’s probably overpriced at around 16/1 , and might be able to run into the places, but he’ll need plenty of luck to get his head in front.

Best Of The British Come Here Without A Run

The market makes Roger Varian’s Shadow Dance and William Haggas’ La Yakel the best of the British contingent but neither have had a run yet this season.

Shadow Dance is very lightly raced and won easily on handicap debut at Haydock last season on good ground before finding one too good in the Old Rowley Cup, which is traditionally one of the strongest 3yo handicaps each season.

The lack of run isn’t a worry as Roger Varian’s string have run well first time out this year and Perotto finished 3rd in the Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday without a previous run, which is a pointer that Shadow Dance will be fit enough. He’s got a nice wide draw but his run style is a worry as he tends to be held up and this might not be run at a furious gallop. His trainer thinks he’ll stay further this season so it would be no surprise to see him stay on fairly well here and then win later in the season, probably upped in trip.

La Yakel is far easier to oppose. He’s looked best at 10f on easy ground and he’s drawn in stall 1 so a line goes through him.

Honourable Mentions

Many runners bring solid handicap form into this race but possibly lack the scope of some of the favourites.

Sir Mark Prescott has already had a Royal Ascot winner this week and his Sea King won a decent race at Ripon last time out. He’s won his last two at this trip but both of those victories came on soft ground and he’s arguably better in small fields off the back of a break so this may not be the time to catch him.

Fairbanks probably showed too much to the handicapper when winning easily at Newcastle on his penultimate start and he paid for that win with a 7lb hike in the weights. That didn’t stop him finishing runner up in a weaker handicap than this last time out but that’s cost him another 2lb rise and he’s almost certainly not well enough handicapped to win this, especially from stall 2, although he does have the run style to overcome that draw.

Sheer Rocks only had three runs last season but he showed he’d improved from 3 to 4 when winning two decent races very well before finishing a fair 5th in the Old Newton Cup. He was well placed in that though and it seemed to show he was handicapped to the hilt so he’ll need to have improved again to land this.

Stayers Likely To Be Too Slow

I like Bague D’Or as a fast ground option but he’s taken his form to a new level over 14f and is likely to find this too sharp a test. A decent staying handicap can go his way in the next few months, perhaps the 14f handicap during the Newmarket July Festival.

He’s expected to finish ahead of old rival Vaguely Rival who is a bit of an old boat and he’s likely to lack the gears required to get involved in this.

Party Central ran in the Copper Horse on Tuesday and stayed on into 8th off a strong pace. That was a decent run but it looked more of a Northumberland Plate prep than a sighter for dropping back two furlongs in trip so he’s not fancied to get involved in this.

Quick Mentions

Struth is a fairly solid horse but he’s very much exposed and probably needs softer ground to be seen at his best.

Epic Poet has a fair bit going for him and is probably feasibly handicapped but he hasn’t convinced at this trip to date and almost certainly wants 10f (he may even be effective over shorter than that in the right race).

Teumessias Fox was one of the favourites for this race last year but flopped and hasn’t shown a great deal on turf since. Probably more of an all weather horse these days and very unlikely to be well enough treated for this.

Cumulonimbus had things go his way when making all in a couple of handicaps last summer and he has an excellent record in cheekpieces, which weren’t worn on stable debut last time he was seen in January but go back on here. The absence is a concern and he’s almost certainly not well handicapped but connections should be able to find a race for him before long at a lower level.

Kolossal carries top weight on his debut in the UK having moved to Jamie Osbourne. It’s difficult to translate his form to a handicap mark but he looks completely unfancied so not much seems to be expected of him.

Mandoob hasn’t been seen for almost two years but has run well fresh in the past and has shown a good level of form on fast ground at this trip, including over course and distance. It’s a massive ask to win this after such a layoff but market support should be noted.

Marhaba The Champ probably shouldn’t be the outsider here as he was sent off just 9/2 last time out at York in a class 2 handicap. The ground was against him that day as he wants it like a road and underfoot conditions should be much more in his favour here. He’ll likely be dropped out from stall 7 so won’t be well positioned but it would be no surprise if he showed a lot more here than at York, setting him up to win soon.

Summary

Best of the British could be Roger Varian’s Shadow Dance but I expect circumstances to conspire against him here and can see him being an eyecatching finisher.

Irish challenger Safecracker should also be running on well late but he’s another whose chance might already be gone turning for home. At his price he’s still a fair place only bet though.

Not the most original selection at the prices but ETHICAL DIAMOND has so much going for him in this and 3/1 is still a very backable price. He should be perfectly placed in the straight and should be able to avoid any trouble in running. He has the ability to rate a fair bit higher yet and is probably in the best hands possible to land an Ascot handicap.

Joseph O’Brien’s Deakin is fancied as the next best option in this race and if the price on Ethical Diamond is too short for you, it might be worth backing the forecast here.


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