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RacingBetter News |
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| Friday 14th June 2024 | ||
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Friday Freebie: Yippee Is Worth Getting Excited About On Decent Ground
I think we were on the best horse last week but very possibly the worst jockey. Outgun broke well and was just about in the perfect position as they came to the first furlong pole, but he was then allowed to drop back with no effort made to hold his position. When they got into the straight Palmer seemed to get his hands in a complete muddle and dropped the reins. The horse was only ridden in the final furlong and by then it was far too late, but the horse flew home for 4th. I’m confident he’ll win with a proper jockey on next time.
I can’t moan too much about the ride as I was very aware there was a good chance he’d get a poor ride, but even that effort was below expectations and I won’t be backing Oscar Palmer for a good while now.
This Week’s Race
There are plenty of handicaps to choose from on Friday but an uncertain weather forecast makes confident predictions difficult at this stage.
I’m going to preview the 3.25 at Chester as I’m very keen on a horse running in that, but I wish the race would be run on faster ground and I’ll most likely be treading carefully stake wise with this one.
Chester Pointers
Everyone knows a low draw is an advantage here but this race will be run over 10f, how much of a factor is it over this distance?
On ground that is somewhere between good and good to soft it’s a marginal advantage to be drawn lower but it’s not significant. Of much more interest is the pace bias, with front runners having an outstanding record that massively outperforms market expectations.
Johnston 3yo Could Make All (Again)
This is a race full of lightly raced 3yos so any of them could suddenly improve but the most interesting of them could be Charlie Johnston’s Yippee. The gelding failed to handle heavy ground last time out but based on his Pontefract win, on his penultimate outing, he’s still very well handicapped.
The horse was gelded in February and duly improved to finish runner up in a fast ground Haydock handicap. Given his subsequent run, and the fact that Haydock run hasn’t really worked out, it’s likely he still needed the run that day.
He was much better when next seen at Pontefract as he won a maiden handicap in impressive fashion. The 10 strong field that day may not have won a race between them at that point in their careers, but less than three weeks later, three of those in behind have already shed their maiden tags on their next starts and another was beaten just a short head.
The runner up has since won a handicap by 2.25 lengths, the 3rd won a handicap by 1.75 lengths and the 6th won on Tuesday evening by 1.75 lengths. It was the 5th who was beaten just a short head on his next start.
That looks remarkably strong form for a maiden handicap and although Yippee got the run of the race that day when winning, and is now 6lbs higher, he did win that race in impressive fashion by almost 3 lengths. When he repeats that form, he looks sure to win more races.
This course and distance really suits front runners so he could get the run of the race again here, especially with this field containing no other habitual front runners. Cloudy Skye did make the running last time out but she’s been held up in other races and it looked an opportunistic ploy in a small field last time out. From stall 9, she’s going to have to play second fiddle to Yippee (stall 5) if she wants to try to repeat those tactics here. Amancio tends to race prominently but again, from stall 8 he’s likely to end up just behind Yippee in the early pecking order.
Yippee’s latest run can have a line put through it as it came in awful conditions and we’re far more likely to get a price about a horse that was beaten 23 lengths last time out than a horse that won a hot race impressively last time out so that run has likely done us some favours with the odds compilers.
There are now question marks about what ground he can handle though. Clearly he goes well on good ground and doesn’t handle heavy ground but what about anything in between? Judging by the current going and the forecast, the ground is unlikely to be too far from good to soft.
Yippee is by Australian sprinter Zouster. His offspring have generally hated heavy ground but run well on every other type of going, including good to soft and soft. That’s encouraging. The dam only ever ran on fast ground and the all weather but she was by Pivotal (a soft ground influence).
Yippee actually has a full brother, a 4yo called Zu Run, and he ran well last season on good to soft ground but he was recently a non runner because of soft ground. Half sibling Nymphdora is a soft ground winner so there is plenty of encouragement in the pedigree, especially with the ground looking unlikely to be any worse than good to soft.
Plenty Of Top Stables In Opposition
Not every lightly raced runner from a big yard proves ahead of their mark but there is a good chance there are other well handicapped runners lurking in here.
William Haggas’ Rebaatt was 2nd on handicap debut last time out at Newmarket. The winner has won again since and the 7th has got within a short head of winning but every other runner has let the form down so there are mixed signals about the strength of that race. He was a massive drifter that day so market support this time around could be ominous.
Ralph Beckett fields handicap debutant Hutchene who has been kept to easy ground and the all weather so far. The trainer sees him as more of a long term prospect, likely to be suited by 12f in time, but he showed definite promise on seasonal debut at Windsor over just a mile in a novice race last time out. A couple of those who finished ahead of him have won maidens/novices at short prices since but nothing has made an impact in handicaps. A mark of 76 means no chances have been taken with him by the handicapper.
Hugo Palmer must always be respected at Chester but his runner It’s Not Risky has only won in very small fields and has looked held by the handicapper on recent turf starts. His chance may depend on a change of headgear bringing about significant improvement.
Others In With Chances
Jack Channon’s Amancio has been very consistent in handicaps this season but has been a non runner on three occasions in recent weeks for a variety of reasons which is slightly off putting. He won well over a mile in soft ground in April and then found just one too good over this trip (soft ground again) on his only start in May. He races prominently which is likely to be a plus here and although others are less exposed, he looks one of the more likely players.
James Ferguson’s Tatateo is difficult to weigh up. He went close in a novice race in January and then after two months off he massively underperformed next time out. He bounced back with a decent enough win last time out (another novice race) but it was only a four runner race. The horse who narrowly beat him in January, getting 5lbs from Tatateo, is now rated 104 which suggests this horse might have got into handicaps lightly off 80. Easier ground here is a slight question mark but he certainly has potential to rate higher.
Others Need To Improve
The remaining six runners all seem to need to find some improvement from somewhere.
No runner here has won more races than Tasmanian Legend but that’s not necessarily a positive for the horse as the handicapper has had far more opportunities to anchor him. All his best form is on the all weather so far and he’s been off for 74 days so isn’t guaranteed to be at his best.
On Point is yet to run over further than 7f so far and hasn’t been shaping as if well handicapped or ready for this trip yet. Maybe this trip will unlock a new level of form but he looks opposable.
Double Jump won on soft ground last season in a nursery handicap and apparently appreciated the ground on that occasion. He hasn’t fired at all in two runs on good ground this season and softer ground and/or a step up in trip will need to help him regain his form.
Caelan won a weak handicap in February and has been well enough beaten on two turf starts since. Connections reach for first time cheekpieces here and even if the headgear works, others are probably better treated.
Volto Di Medusa won a Bath maiden before finishing well held in what was a very poor handicap last time at Nottingham. The new trip and slightly softer ground will need to have a huge effect on the horse for him to figure here.
Richard Fahey’s filly Cloudy Skye hasn’t been beaten far in two handicap runs this season and could be well placed if this race favours the pace horses. She doesn’t look especially well treated at this stage in her career but both of those runs came in a better grade of race so there is no reason she shouldn’t run well enough in this.
Summary
Cloudy Skye and Amancio could enjoy a tactical advantage over much of the field here and it wouldn’t be a shock if either placed but both are probably playing for minor honours at best, with others appealing more for win purposes, even if they come with more risks attached.
Tatateo and Hutchence fall into the ‘could be anything’ category on handicap debuts. Both are likely to prove better than their current marks and whilst the former is feared more in terms of this race, both still have something to prove.
Rebaatt is potentially the biggest threat to the selection as he ran very well on handicap debut, when very weak in the betting, beaten only by a subsequent winner. He was sent off as joint favourite on heavy ground on debut last season so must be thought to handle cut in the ground and he’s surely going to be winning soon. His run style does make him opposable here as he’s generally been patiently ridden to date and this might not set up particularly well for the hold up performers.
The one I really like is YIPPEE. He won an extremely strong handicap at Pontefract on his penultimate outing, in impressive fashion, and there were very valid excuses for his effort last time out. If you were picking the ideal run style for this race you’d have to choose a front runner and he could get an uncontested lead here.
His breeding does suggest he’ll be fine on good to soft ground but there still has to be a little doubt about how effective he’ll be on underfoot conditions, especially if it’s pushing soft on Friday afternoon. With that worry in mind, we do need to get a decent enough price to offset that risk.
If he was coming here off the back of his Pontefract win he’d likely be a very warm favourite for the race. It’s pretty clear the ground went against him last time out but I wouldn’t be surprised if the bookies overreact somewhat to that defeat, and possibly slightly overlook the strength of the Pontefract form. That’s the hope anyway, especially with some decent, unexposed horses in opposition (especially one from the Haggas yard). I think we might even be looking at the second favourite in the betting and I don’t think getting 4/1 is a forlorn hope. Maybe some firms will go bigger initially but I wouldn’t expect that to last long.
If good to soft ground is looking likely I want at least 4/1, if the forecast improves slightly and good ground is expected then I’d perhaps be willing to take 3/1. I’d be reluctant to have anything but a very small bet if it’s going to be soft.
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