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epsom derby 2011/
Epsom Derby 10 Year Trends
23/05/11
The Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 4th June and this year’s race has a lot to live up to after Sea The Stars did the Guineas-Derby double in 2009 and Workforce won in amazing fashion last year.
Unfortunately it looks as if Frankel will not be taking part, but Carlton House’s Dante win means that he looks to be the one they all have to beat.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 3yos
Breeding
Irish bred: 6-12-78
British bred: 3-6-48
American bred: 1-2-17
German bred: 0-0-1
French bred: 0-0-2
10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
9 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
5 of 10 winners by a sire that’d won or placed in English or Irish 2000 Guineas
5 of 10 winners by a sire who’d finished in the first 2 in the King George
10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on all starts that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)
10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 114+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions didn’t run in a group 1 as 2yo)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce last year, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they’d run in
6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
9 of 10 winners made their debut in a 7F or 8F race
9 of 10 winners made their debut at a group 1 track
The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 38 times before winning the race. In those 38 starts they had finished outside the first 2 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on their racecourse debut as a 2yo.
2yo Form
Racing Post Trophy winner (Casamento): 7106116 (3-0-7)
Dewhurst winner (Frankel): 311 (2-1-3)
National Stakes winner (Pathfork): 2031 (1-2-4)
Beresford Stakes winner (Casamento): 30201 (1-2-5)
Futurity Stakes winner (Pathfork): 20P1 (1-1-4)
Tyros Stakes winner (Zoffany): 14 (1-0-2)
Criterium De Saint-Cloud winner (Recital): 092 (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11
3yo Form
Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in 2000 Guineas: 24701104 (2-1-8)
Dante Stakes winner (Carlton House): 739110120 (3-2-9)
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Recital): 113430325 (2-4-9)
Dee Stakes winners (Glen’s Diamond): 15080 (1-0-5)
Cocket Hat Stakes winner (Masked Marvel): F703 (0-1-4)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Dordogne): 6804093670 (0-1-10)
Newmarket Stakes winner (Ocean War): 80 (0-0-2)
Gallinule Stakes winner (Alexander Pope): 04 (0-0-2)
Bet365 Classic Trial winner (Genius Beast): 00400 (0-0-5)
Chester Vase winner (Treasure Beach): 56605450 (0-0-8)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112
3 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in the Derrinstown Dtud Derby Trial, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ballysax Stakes, finishing 11
Trainers
British-trained runners: 6-10-94
Irish-trained runners: 4-9-47
French-trained runners: 0-1-5
Michael Stoute (3-2-10) has won the race 3 times in past 10 years and his first strings’ record reads 211021 (3-2-6).
Aidan O’Brien (2-7-39) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but since then has managed just 6 places from 35 runners.
John Oxx (1-1-2), Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4), Jim Bolger (1-0-2), Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) and Michael Bell (1-0-3) have all won the race once in the past 10 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-4-9) and John Dunlop (0-2-4) have both had multiple placed finishers since 2000.
Price
10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.
Favourites (4-4-12) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 4.50 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
• Born before 07/04/2008
• Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
• Run 2 to 5 times before (and once or twice this year)
• Never finished worse than 2nd (excluding racecourse debuts)
• Had run in the past 35 days
• Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
• Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
• Won Dante, Derrinstown or placed in 2000 Guineas as 3yo
• Won a group race
• Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
• Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo
• Trained by M Stoute, J Oxx or A O’Brien
• Priced 6/1 or below |
Epsom
Derby
