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| Cheltenham Festival 2012 |
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By Billy Blakeman ValueChecker
Venture Capital Has Perfect Investment Profile for Champion Bumper
19/02/12
The Weatherbys Champion Bumper is not one of the easier puzzles to solve but it is perhaps easier to judge a long way out than the novice hurdles.
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Given the inexperience of the equine contenders, Wiki content is necessarily thin on the ground but there are some really solid statistics associated with this race. Perhaps the key pointer is the great record that Irish trainers have in this; the Emerald Isle providing the winner 14 times in 19 years. Like most stats, simple logic explains the situation easily and in Ireland, bumpers are taken a great deal more seriously than over in England. Such races are often run at an artificially slow pace, especially over here and so this huge field fast-run affair will be quite different to what many of the horses have been used to.
Age is another pointer with 5 and 6 years olds having a virtually unblemished record in recent times. Cue Card was an exception but on balance, it is a sensible idea to stick with the 5/6 year group, with 5-y-o’s holding the call with 6-wins in the last 10-years.
To further narrow down the field, a horse who is unbeaten is preferable and it is better to concentrate on horses who have had maybe one or two runs, rather than four. It is also unusual for the winner to have had an outing too close to the Festival so don’t be put off by a bit of a break.
Looking through the contenders, to me there is just one that meets all the highlighted trends and pointers and he is Venture Capital. This son of Presenting has a stamina-laden pedigree and he raced handy throughout before winning a Fairyhouse bumper by 3-lengths last December. Deliberately put away after that and astute trainer Philip Fenton has spoken highly of his charge. The trainer’s name may be familiar which is because he sent Dunguib over to Cheltenham to win the Champion Bumper in 2009. That must be considered one more positive so in a race where wiki pointers are thin, there is still a strong case built around Venture Capital on what the history of this race tells us.
Recommendation: Venture Capital at 16/1
