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| John Smith's Grand National - 14th April 2012 |
courtesy of
Aintree Grand National Trends
10/04/12
The highlight for many of the national hunt calendar, the John Smith’s Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday 14th April. Gold Cup winner, Synchronised, has been allotted top weight and last year’s winner, Ballabriggs, carrying 1lb less than the maximum weight. It’s always a fiercely competitive cavalry charge, you need plenty of luck to win it but there are plenty of key trends that can narrow the field down.
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Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-6
7yo: 0-0-22
8yo: 1-7-66
9yo: 3-8-111
10yo: 5-6-92
11yo: 0-9-69
12yo: 1-0-26
13yo+: 0-0-7
Every winner since WWII (1946) has been aged 8 to 12
8 of 10 winners (including last 7) have been aged 9 or 10 (7-14-198)
In the past 7 years all 28 places were filled by horses aged 8 to 11
The only horse aged older than 11 to win this since 2002 was Amberleigh House who was placed in previous year’s race and had finished 1st or 2nd in previous 3 Becher Chases.
No horse aged below 8 or above 12 has made the frame in the past 10 years (0-0-39)
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-11 or more: 6-17-172
Horses carrying 10-10 or less: 4-13-227
In recent years with the weights being more closely bunched, higher weights have done better with the 14 of 16 places in the past 4 years being filled by horses carrying 10-11 or more.
8 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of between 10-5 and 11-0 on publication of National weights.
10 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight
Top Weight: F0FP290UF3 (0-2-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 144 or higher: 4-15-149
Horses rated 143 or lower: 6-15-250
In recent years the trend has swung towards higher rated runners.
In last 3 years
Horses rated 144 or higher: 3-8-74
Horses rated 143 or lower: 0-1-46
Breeding
Irish bred: 9-19-227
French bred: 1-5-100
British bred: 0-6-64
Other: 0-0-8
Mon Mome became the first French bred since 1909 to win the Grand National when landing the race in 2009.
However Irish bred horses have the best record having won 9 of the last 10 and filled in 28 of 40 places (70%) from approximately 56.9% of the runners.
Our Vic has sired 16 National runners in 4 runnings in past 10 years, with a record of 2-3-16.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions had won a class 2 chase worth 30K+)
9 of 10 (last 9) had won a chase worth 29K+
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since Sept 1
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases
9 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases
7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 12 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners (last had won 1 to 3 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were 3rd or 4th season chasers
Only 2 second season chasers have won this in past 10 years, Bindaree (a grade 1 winner over hurdles) and Numbersixvalverde (won the Thyestes and Irish Grand National the previous season)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR at a left-handed track
10 of 10 winners had their last run since National weights were announced (past 50 days)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 140+ on 1 of last 3 chase starts
8 of 10 winners (all 4 Irish-trained winners) had a run over hurdles in January, February or March
Course form
Previous Year’s winner (Ballabriggs): 64026203 (0-4-8)
Becher Chase winner (West End Rocker): 92PPPFUP (0-1-8)
Previous season’s Becher Chase winner (Hello Bud): 7CF2B (0-1-5)
Becher Chase winner two seasons ago (Vic Venturi): 131P (2-1-4)
Topham Chase winner (Always Waining): 25F (0-1-3)
6 of 10 winners had previously run over the National fences
2 of 10 winners had won over the National fences, both in the Becher Chase 2 seasons previous
4 of 10 winners had run in the previous season’s Grand National, finishing 3FF0
3 of 10 winners had run in a Topham Chase, finishing 429
7 of 10 winners ran at the previous year’s Aintree National meeting (4 in GN, 2 in Topham & 1 in John Smith’s H’cap Chase), 1 exception won previous season’s Irish National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception didn’t race the previous season
Other Nationals
Previous season’s Irish National winner (Organisedconfusion): FU1FFFP0 (1-0-8)
Welsh National winner (Le Beau Bai): UP (0-0-2)
Previous season’s Welsh National winner (Synchronised): 20F (0-1-3)
Kerry National winner (Alfa Beat): 1P (1-0-2)
Previous season’s Kerry National winner (Alfa Beat): 4 (0-1-1)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in the Irish, Welsh, or Aintree Grand Nationals
5 of 10 winners had run in a Welsh National, finishing 331P2
2 of 10 winners had run in an Irish National, finishing 01
2 of 10 winners had run in a Scottish National, finishing P9
Other Races
Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase winner (Shakalakaboomboom): F1U (1-0-3)
Previous season’s Kim Muir winner (Junior): F671 (1-0-4)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Weird Al): 4 (0-1-1)
Cashel Chase winner (In Compliance): 00 (0-0-2)
Argento Chase winner (Midnight Chase): 0U (0-0-2)
Sky Bet Chase winner (Calgary Bay): F6 (0-0-2)
London National winner (Deep Purple): PF (0-0-2)
Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase winner (According To Pete): PP (0-0-2)
Peter Marsh Chase winner (According To Pete): U8 (0-0-2)
Pat Taaffe H’cap Chase winner (Shakalakaboomboom): FU (0-0-2)
Thyestes winner (On His Own): FP0 (0-0-3)
Bet With Your Mobile At Victor Chandler Chase winner (Calgary Bay): PPFF (0-0-4)
Leopardstown H’cap Chase winner (Seabass): UPPF (0-0-4)
Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Giles Cross): PF5P0 (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in a Hennessy Gold Cup
2 of 10 winners had won the previous season’s Thyestes Chase
Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners raced prominently
1 of 10 winners raced in mid-division
3 of 10 winners were held up
Trainers
4 of 10 winners were trained in Ireland (4-9-92) from approximately 23% of the total runners.
Trainers who have won the race in the past 10 years and have entries this year are:
Jonjo O’Neill (1-3-20), Willie Mullins (1-2-18), David Pipe (1-1-17), Gordon Elliot (1-0-4), Donald McCain (1-0-7), Venetia Williams (1-0-10) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-25).
Evan Williams (0-3-3) has saddled State Of Play to place in the last 3 runnings.
Paul Nicholls (0-3-37) and Tom Taaffe (0-2-3) have also saddled multiple placed horses.
Trainers with very poor records in the race in the past decade include:
Philip Hobbs (0-1-9), Peter Bowen (0-1-7) and Nicky Henderson (0-0-9).
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 20/1 or below.
There have been 2 big shocks in the past decade: a 33/1 winner in 2007 and a 100/1 winner in 2009.
8 of 10 winners were priced between 25/1 and 40/1 at publication of weights
Favourites (3-5-18) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 7.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 8 to 11 (9 or 10 especially)
• Carrying 10-11 or more
• Carrying no more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight
• Officially rated 144 or higher
• Irish bred
• Finished in first 5 on last completed start
• Won no more than one chase this season
• Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+
• Won over 3M+
• Run 3 to 6 times since September 2011 & run since 15th February
• Run in at least 10 chases (winning 3 to 5)
• Posted an RPR of 140+ in one of last 3 chase starts
• Posted highest RPR at a left-handed track
• Has run over hurdles in 2012
• Finished in first 4 in a previous Topham, Becher or Aintree Grand National
• Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh National
• Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup
• Trained in Ireland
• Priced 20/1 or below
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