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RacingBetter News |
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| Friday 11th October 2024 | ||
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Friday Freebie: Gold Can Cash In On York Class Drop
After a couple of weeks off, I’m back for the final preview of this flat season.
The results of the tips I’ve highlighted in this column have been pretty poor this season and very different to last year where it seemed we had a 6/1+ winner every few weeks. I do think though that they’ve generally offered a good read with several winners given quite favourable write ups, even if they haven’t always been the final selections.
The idea with these previews is always that they are guides to a race rather than definitive tipping pieces, explaining how the races might be run and what sort of horses might be favoured. It is nice to have a few winners along the way though!
Hopefully I can end the season with a winner (Hafeet Alain was a winner on this card last year in my final column of the season) and before I move on to this week’s race I’d just like to say a big thank you to any regular readers this past flat season.
This Week’s Race
York hosts an excellent card on Friday and choosing the race to preview isn’t easy. The mile handicap would usually be the one to stand out but the ground might be slightly easier than ideal for the one I had my eye on in that race.
There is also an interesting 7f handicap later on but in testing going it might be difficult to make up a lot of ground from the back in that race and the one I had in mind for that one is a confirmed hold up performer.
That leaves the 5f handicap, which is due off at 3.45pm at York, as the race where I’m likely to be having my most confident wager of the day.
York Pointers
The 5f course here usually strongly favours those up with the pace, although that pace bias is not quite as pronounced on softer ground as it is on fast ground.
The draw bias can vary from meeting to meeting and often changes with the going. At the relatively recent Ebor Meeting the far side was the place to be but overall in recent years you’ve been better off drawn higher than lower and at York’s most recent meeting (a month ago on good to soft) all the jockeys wanted to come near side.
The Classic Generation Well Represented
This race has been won by 3yos for the past two years and a 3yo was also victorious in 2009 and with exactly half the field coming from that age group there is a decent chance they complete the hat trick.
Two of those 3yos come into this off the back of last time out victories. Enchanting is a pure mudlark who won a small field handicap last time out at Goodwood and she’s paid for that with an 8lb rise in the handicap. She still has room for a little improvement in testing conditions but the handicapper probably has her now in terms of stopping her from winning and her best runs have all come at Goodwood.
Duran won over course and distance last time out in slightly better ground to take his record on the Knavesmire to 2 from 2. That win came in this class but the race hasn’t worked out overly well yet and he hasn’t run on ground quite this soft so far so there are some questions to answer off a 4lb higher mark now.
Mini Magma was a length and a half behind Duran last time out and went off too hard in the early stages so has definite claims of reversing that form if his energy is made better use of in this, with a 5lb swing in the weights likely to bring them much closer together as well. He’s a good to soft winner and although he ran poorly on his only run on soft, he was out of form at that point and sent off 66/1 so it’s difficult to blame that effort solely on the ground.
Another pairing that are closely matched are Moonstone Boy and Monks Dream, who were separated by just half a length at Hamilton last time out. Both will be fine on the ground but you could argue both are better on stiffer courses, or at least have shown their best form on stiffer tracks. Monks Dream ran poorly on his only visit to York when well behind Duran on his penultimate start.
Kevin Ryan’s Vantheman was disappointing when sent off favourite at Pontefract last time out in favourable conditions and ran poorly on his only previous run on soft so he has something prove here whilst Irish Nectar, Vince L’Amour and The Fixer all need to bounce back to form after poorer efforts elsewhere. Vince L’Amour is very inconsistent but doesn’t have much to find with Duran on their most recent meeting if returning to his best with Irish Nectar also running in that race and being sent off favourite before running disappointingly. He’s difficult to catch right but is a contender on his best efforts this season. The Fixer hasn’t shown much form in the past 12 months and needs a move to Scott Dixon to spark a return to form.
Course And Distance Specialists Back For More
This race is named in honour of Copper Knight, the winning most horse at this venue, and he renews rivalry with Dakota Gold who is next best in terms of winning here with an opportunity to join Copper Knight as York’s joint winning most horse if he’s victorious in this. Between them they’ve run 47 times at York and won 13 races.
Both horses are fine in these conditions and Dakota Gold is on his last winning mark from this season with Copper Knight 2lbs below his last winning mark, also successful this season. Dakota Gold is slightly better over 6f whereas Copper Knight is better over the minimum trip so out of the pair he seems to have the better chance in a race he won back in 2018. He was better than the bare result last time out at Chester (the inside hasn’t been the place to be there this season) and on his last two runs here with cut in the ground he wasn’t beaten far off higher marks so if a low draw is no barrier to success he could easily run well.
Other Veterans Have Solid Claims
Abate is an 8yo now and has dropped to a nice mark but he really wants much better ground than this and is ideally served by Newmarket (three of his last five wins have come there). He’s unlikely to figure in this but should start next season well handicapped and will be one to look out for when getting his ground again.
Good Earth has returned to form recently after a poorer spell and he was ahead of Moonstone Boy and Monks Dream at Hamilton last time out. He won off 89 last year and despite two recent wins he’s still 5lbs below that mark so he has some wiggle room there. If he’s to match the best of last season’s form he probably wants slightly better ground and he had his limitations exposed last time out on soft ground, albeit running well in 2nd. He’s likely to be one of the favourites for this and is respected but could be vulnerable on the ground.
The old timer who is really interesting here is Aberama Gold. He’s generally been running well in the wrong conditions this season, with the odd below par run thrown in. He’s handicapped to be extremely competitive based on several runs this season.
He’s 12lbs lower than when beaten just a length at Newmarket in April and the last time he ran in this grade on turf he was beaten less than a length behind the subsequent Ayr Gold Cup winner off a 5lb higher mark.
In total, Aberama Gold has dropped 15lbs in the handicap this season and although that is a sign that he’s been regressive, he has been running well along the way and he’s finally getting the ground he craves now.
The best way to take advantage of a falling mark is to drop in grade and the combination of much softer ground here AND the drop in grade should see him go very close. He got soft ground last time out in a class 2 handicap and was only beaten by a progressive 3yo who had already placed at Royal Ascot this season and also a William Haggas handicapper who would be sent into a group race next time out.
Some Strong Chances Amongst Remainder
One of the most eyecatching runners in this is Brooklyn Nine Nine, who was a selection for the service last time out when an unlucky 2nd at Ascot. York isn’t a course that should particularly play to his strengths but he’s run really well in all three visits here. If things drop kindly for him he’s definitely well enough handicapped to win a race like this but he does seem to be an unlucky loser every time he runs and those sorts of horses can be very unprofitable and frustrating to follow.
Trilby has had a good season this term, largely running over 6f but also doing well over a stiff 5f. He certainly handles this ground but he’s a bit of a Haydock specialist and might find things happening a bit too quickly over this fast 5f. Stall 1 also looks less than ideal so this might not be the day for him.
Wen Moon will also handle this ground and whilst Trilby has shown his best form at Haydock, Wen Moon is a very much a horse that has shown some of his best form here at York. He won this race off a 4lb higher mark last season and the last time he ran here with some cut in the ground he was a close 3rd after getting no sort of run off his last winning mark. He’s well handicapped, loves it here and gets his ground so he looks to have a massive chance but stall 5 might be a slight concern. Given he’s seemingly run poorly on his last two starts (he’s actually run well in the circumstances) he should be overpriced early and it would be no surprise to see him well backed for this.
Course and distance winner Bedford Flyer completes the field. He’s on a fair mark but he’s only won once on turf in the past four years and is almost certainly better on a sounder surface so he’s probably one to consider more for all weather races in the coming months, as it looks like he’ll be campaigned throughout the winter on synthetics.
Summary
There are many in with chances here, not least some of the 3yos, but in terms of those to make appeal as bets there are two horses that standout.
Wen Moon looks to have everything in his favour other than (possibly) the draw and assuming he’s a double figure price (I’d be expecting 12/1 - 14/1) he’s well worth a saver in this.
However it’s the classier ABERAMA GOLD who is going to be the main selection. The combination of very testing ground and a drop in class will suit this two time course winner. He’s comfortable over 6f so this fast 5f is a slight concern but he should be able to sit just off a strong pace and could be quite ideally placed from stall 13.
Given he ran well last time out, he won’t be missed by the odds compiler. Wen Moon could easily end up looking better value when the bookies price this one up, but this race is certainly competitive enough for us to be getting 7/1+ on Aberama Gold, with some 3yos in here who won last time out and also Brooklyn Nine Nine who was put in as the early favourite for the Ayr Silver Cup last time out before being made a non runner.
It’s Brooklyn Nine Nine who may be best of the rest. Now that I’m opposing him it will be extra frustrating if he finally gets his head in front but hopefully the additional 3lbs he now carries after his latest effort is enough to stop him (if trouble in running doesn’t do so).
Copper Knight is another who is respected, but stall 4 is hopefully a negative for the horse this race is named after.
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