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	Friday 17th May 2024
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Friday Freebie: Channon Runner Can Land Friday’s Big Handicap

I took a chance on Boardman being ready to win at his favourite track last week but it was pretty clear from the market that this was another prep run ahead of returning to Chester later this month as he was very weak before the off.

Even if he’d been cherry ripe he couldn’t have won. There was a huge pace bias with pretty much no horse changing position through the entire race - the one exception being Boardman who passed a few horses late on. It looks all systems go for him to win that race later this month for the fourth consecutive year.

The winner was Percy’s Lad, who I quite liked in general but didn’t fancy from his extremely wide draw. He was given a very good ride to get the lead early and once he got there he never looked like getting beat.  

This Week’s Race

We go into the final day of the Dante Meeting at York and that’s where I’m heading for this week’s race.

The 2.45pm at York is a class 2, 10f handicap for older horses with 16 runners entered, 4 short of a max field.

It’s not a race I have an extremely strong position on but the form is there for all to see so hopefully there aren’t too many nasty surprises and it should be a race I can pick apart quite well.

York Pointers

York is a venue that can have some fairly strong draw and pace biases but the 10f trip is actually one of the fairest at the course.

In terms of pace, it usually very much depends on how fast they go rather than a specific bias. In a slowly run race you’ll obviously want to be fairly near the pace and in a well run race you are best off sitting a bit further back.

There also isn’t a massive draw bias over 10f but it pays to slightly downgrade the higher draws, mainly those drawn 14+. Given there isn’t a maximum field here, very few should be inconvenienced by stall position.

Favourite May Not Run

The warm favourite at the time of writing is the lightly raced Botanical but he was recently withdrawn on account of good to firm ground at Chester. It’s unlikely to be quite that fast here but his career best performance last time out came on soft ground so conditions could be far from perfect.

He’s been extremely consistent in his 5 runs to date and he has a lovely profile for a race like this. His softer ground performances are efforts that really need to be noted.

He won a Hamilton novice race by almost 4 lengths last summer, on just his 2nd start, beating a runner up who is now rated 92, with an 81 rated gelding 3 lengths further back in 3rd. Botanical did get 7lbs from the runner up in that contest but he still probably ran to a three figure rating that day.

In hindsight, he faced an impossible task on his next run against a future Group 1 winner in a Kempton novice but he did extremely well to get within 2 lengths of that horse, off level weights, and he once again must have run to 100+.

On his final run last season he was a wide margin winner in soft ground in a Hamilton handicap. He must have been thrown in off a mark of 87 and duly won by 6 lengths, beating the subsequent Lincoln winner into 2nd, marking that down as seriously good form.

The handicapper put him up 10lbs for that, up to a mark of 97, but he’s still probably run to higher marks several times so he should still be well handicapped.

However, before that latest easy win, he could only manage 3rd off 87 on good to firm ground at Ascot. The going won’t be quite that fast on Friday, but he’s also running off a 10lb higher mark. He’s clearly nowhere near as good on faster ground and that has to be a worry unless there is heavy rain on Thursday.

Several Others Want Soft Ground

It seems many connections will be doing a rain dance as Theoryofeverything, Qitaal, Stressfree and Qaasid have all done all their winning in softish conditions.

Stressfree is handicapped to beat Qitaal on their meeting at Doncaster earlier this season and Stressfree is a horse worth noting as he seems very likely to be winning in soft ground when he next gets it. It seems almost impossible either horse will get their perfect ground though.

Qaasid doesn’t seemingly need it quite as soft as that pair but he’s poorly drawn here and the race he won at Newbury last time out isn’t working out particularly well.

Theoryofeverything has run two decent races on good ground this season so he’s less ground dependent than the others in this group but given he was a wide margin winner in soft ground last season, he looks like he’s going to improve again when returned to ground with more cut in it.

Faster Ground Contenders

I’d imagine Friday’s races will be run on good ground again (Thursday’s rain is forecast to be very light) and that could rule out some pretty well fancied runners.

Majestic will have no issues with decent ground and he’s fairly closely matched with Theoryofeverything on both his runs this season. They clashed over a mile in April at Newmarket and Majestic was half a length behind on that occasion but he either improved for that run or improved for the extra furlong next time as he was pulling away towards the end, beating Theoryofeverything by 1.75 lengths. Neither horse’s mark has changed so Majestic has an excellent chance of confirming that form over this trip.

What makes the former Cambridgeshire winner’s last time out effort all the more impressive is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th were all ridden more prominently than Majestic, who stayed on well into 4th.

Majestic was a close 4th in this race last year off 1lb higher mark and he was poorly placed in that, both in how much he was given to do and the part of the track he challenged on. In many respects he was an unlucky loser which is interesting considering the winner of the race would win again on his next visit to York and the 3rd has since won a Group 1 and is rated 22lbs higher now.

He remains 5lbs above his last winning mark but no other runners in this field can boast the consistency in big field handicaps that Majestic offers so he could offer the ideal each way bet.

Loyal Touch and Reach are also amongst the early favourites. The former has finished runner up on his last two starts and is one of just two pace angles on paper here, the other being Qitaal, his stablemate.

He’s been very consistent on recent starts and is 2lbs well in as his new mark after his latest 2nd hasn’t kicked in yet. However this is another step up in grade and he did absolutely get the run of the race last time out at Chester. He’s respected but could find a few too good.

Reach is interesting as she’s a 6yo but she’s still relatively lightly raced and won three of her last four starts last season, including a course and distance class 2 handicap. She’s won on good to soft but seemed to improve for faster ground as the season went on.

She may have won in this grade but none of her races last season worked out especially well and she’ll need to be at her absolute best on seasonal debut here, with the trainers’ record of 1 from 20 first time out in handicaps this season slightly off putting.

Quick Mentions

Of the remainder, Eilean Dubh has plenty to prove over this trip whilst Andaleep could outrun his odds by some distance, but he might be more interesting later this season when returning to Sandown, a course he excels at.

King’s Code’s form seems to have levelled out, although he’d be of interest at his best. Theme Park has a bit to prove but ran three very good races here last season. This trip probably stretches him a bit so he’ll be one to look out for on decent ground over a mile, maybe back here.

Tim Easterby pair Barley and Kitsune Power need to step up and Lord Protector has become well handicapped already but he needs to show more for his new trainer.

Summary

A race that largely revolves around Botanical and what happens with the ground. On good to soft ground he’d probably be worth backing at around 3/1 and on soft ground he’d be a very likely winner. Stressfree would also be a massive beneficiary of rain and would be worthy of strong consideration if it did become more testing.

On the assumption of good ground, there could be a nice bit of value elsewhere. Loyal Touch has plenty in his favour and should give his running but he might just be vulnerable to a runner or two.

The really solid each way option appears to be MAJESTIC. He may not have won in his last 10 starts but each way backers would have made a return in seven of those and he was an unlucky loser twice at this time of year 12 months ago. He’s very competitively handicapped, should have near ideal conditions (assuming not too much rain) and his trainer is in excellent form too.

Ideally George Bass will have him no further back than mid division and at a general 7/1at the time of writing, he looks worth an each way wager on good or better ground.

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