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RacingBetter News |
| Friday 3rd May 2024 | |
Friday Freebie: Two Possible Bets Suggested In Difficult Goodwood Puzzle
Ey Up It’s Jazz was the selection in last week’s column but I was expecting 4/1+ on the horse so I was rather dismayed when most bookies priced him up at 2/1 (one went a more realistic, standout 7/2).
Given 7/2 was only available in one place, I’d only have been able to tip him up at 2/1 and that seemed far too short so I decided against recommending a single on the horse. The market seemed to agree that 2/1 was far too short as he went off at 3/1.
Unsurprisingly he ran very well, beating all the ‘form choices’ but he found 125/1 chance, Tilsworth Turf, too good. I have no idea where that performance came from as that was a runner who had barely beaten a runner home in his entire career.
Ey Up It’s Jazz remains pretty well handicapped in the lowly grade he qualifies to run in so he’d remain of interest in soft/heavy ground handicaps over a stiff 6f or an easy 7f. The ground really is key to him though, it seems even good to soft ground is too fast for him.
This Week’s Race
There is plenty of choice on a good day’s racing but several of the most interesting horses I have in my tracker have some slight doubts about them, be it there is no pace in their races or the ground has gone the wrong way.
The 3pm at Newmarket is a particularly interesting puzzle but the weather forecast for that venue is quite uncertain and at the time of writing, it’s unclear if they’ll be racing on good ground or soft ground, or somewhere inbetween.
The rain damage has already been done at Goodwood with the ground currently described as heavy, soft in places. With more rain on the way, the ground isn’t going to get any better and it can’t get much worse, so that seems the best place to preview.
The 5f handicap on the card was a successful one for the service last year with Dream Composer winning for us and he’s back for more, even better handicapped than last year. He has soft/heavy ground form but has underperformed on extremes of going for the past couple of years so I won’t be backing him. On good to soft he may well have been a bet.
The 6f handicap, which is run at 3.15pm and will be shown on ITV, looks a good race to preview given there is loads of proven form on offer and not too many unknowns. I also have five of the nine runners in my tracker currently so it looks as though a few well handicapped horses could be clashing.
So this week’s preview will concentrate on the 3.15pm at Goodwood, which is a class 3 handicap over 6f.
Goodwood Pointers
Goodwood’s straight course seems relatively fair in this sort of field size, with perhaps a slight advantage to those drawn low (more towards the middle of the course). That seems slightly strange given the action normally develops on the near side rail but over the last decade or so, in these conditions, low draws have won more than middle and high draws combined.
Early Favourite Is Difficult To Oppose
The inclusion of Bishop’s Crown makes this race much harder to assess than if he hadn’t been declared. He’s the only progressive runner in the field, has won his last two, hasn’t been unduly punished for an easy win at Windsor last time out (up 6lbs but was quite impressive), is proven in heavy ground, has run well at Goodwood before and is lightly enough raced to still be improving.
Nothing has yet come out of that Windsor race and run since though, so it’s difficult to fully evaluate the strength of that form, and therefore decide how well handicapped he might be after the latest 6lb hike.
One piece of form that does point to him still being well handicapped is his 2nd in a maiden at Leicester last season. He was 1.75 lengths behind Unequal Love (pair pulled 8 lengths clear of the 3rd) and Unequal Love is now rated 95 having won three times since (and finished 4th in a listed race). Taking into account the distance beaten and the fact that Bishop’s Crown was giving the winner 3lbs that day, it’s not a stretch to suggest Bishop’s Crown ran to a mark of 90 or so that day, which would make him still well handicapped off 84.
He’s clearly improved for the drop to sprint trips given he’s only been beaten by a mid 90s rated horse in a 6f maiden before winning both sprint handicap runs and he has to be the most likely winner of this race.
The Most Consistent Handicapper In Training?
Baldomero is a fascinating horse. He has only won twice, a maiden and a handicap, and hasn’t got his head in front for over two years. He’s as good as ever though and what’s most remarkable is that handicap win came over 10f, yet he now looks best at this distance of 6f.
Since his last win he’s finished runner up 12 times, 3rd 6 times and 4th 3 times from 31 runs since which means he must be one of the most consistent ‘difficult to win with’ horses in training. Since being reassessed for his win 26 months ago, his official rating has remained between 87 and 91 the whole time.
Despite not being able to get his head in front, it’s difficult to argue against him being well handicapped. Four runs ago at Wolverhampton, he was 4th in a red hot handicap where the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th all won next time out and Baldomero is now rated 1lb lower than that run.
Since then, over sprint trips, he’s finished 3rd at Bath over an inadequate 5f in a race where the 4th has won since and he’s finished 2nd in a big field, class 2 sprint at Newmarket where he beat 16 other rivals, albeit getting the run of the race somewhat at a meeting where the pace was holding up well.
Regarding his consistency, it’s also worth noting he’ll be running here in possibly his best form of headgear. In the visor his form figures are 22232.
Given he’s proven in heavy ground (that recent good run at Bath came on heavy), he looks as likely as any runner to give his running and go well.
Other Likely Candidates
Spanish Star is a bit of a course specialist having run thirteen times here, producing form figures of 4421313711736. He’s very versatile, as he’s won on heavy ground and firm ground and despite being a 9 year old now, he’s been improving every year and put in an excellent reappearance at Newbury two weeks ago.
He’s well enough handicapped in a race like this as well. He was only beaten a length last time out off this mark, in what looked a better race than this. Also he was 7th in the Stewards’ Cup on unraceable ground last summer, doing best of those held up early. The second best hold up horse in that race won next time out.
He does stay an easy 7f but is equally good at 6f, as long as they go a decent early gallop. Several of these have made the running at least once in recent starts (Indian Creak, Dayman, Alcazan, Many A Star and Live In The Moment) so they should go a good pace and there is no reason why Spanish Star shouldn’t go very well, as long as he gets the breaks from his near rail draw.
Gisburn is a horse I’ve been following closely for about 18 months now, ever since he ran very well in an extremely hot, heavy ground Haydock handicap at the tail end of the 2022 flat season. He’s not always been particularly consistent since then, especially as three of his ten runs since have come at Newbury, a venue where he now seems incapable of running remotely to form.
He was a course and distance winner in soft ground last season though, off a 3lb lower mark, and he followed that up with a 2nd and 3rd on the all weather, with the winner of those races winning again on their next starts. That 2nd came off this mark and his 3rd was off a 2lb higher mark so he can certainly run into the places off his rating of 89.
He’s a relatively big price for this due to beating just three runners home at Newbury last time out and he has 4 lengths to make up on Spanish Star on that running but as previously mentioned, he’s run inexplicably badly at Newbury on his last three visits and bounced back next time out each time. He was beaten 11.5 lengths and 28 lengths on his last two runs there so being beaten ‘only’ 5 lengths last time was arguably actually a positive. Risky but there’s plenty of upside and he’ll get a good pace to aim at from his possibly favourable low draw.
Many A Star has to have a chance given he’s a course and distance winner who runs off the same mark as when beaten just a neck in soft ground on Saturday at Leicester. He went into that race on the back of two wins so is very much in form but there are reasons to oppose him.
It’s difficult to crab that last time out run too much but it did come in a class 4 race at Leicester where the pace was holding up extremely well. He’ll face more competition for the lead here and is 2lb above his highest winning mark so he could be found wanting when push comes to shove.
Honourable Mentions
Alcazan was 2.25 lengths behind Bishop’s Crown last time out at Windsor and now that he’s 6lbs better off, he’s weighted to significantly close that gap. The winner that day was value for further though and Alcazan has never run on anything softer than good to soft. The positives are that he’s won both starts on good to soft and has also won both starts here at Goodwood so he can’t be confidently ruled out.
Indian Creak finished last of all behind Spanish Star and Gisburn last time out and he’s consistently needed his first run of the season. He’s won twice on soft and has run well in defeat on heavy but this course winner is still a little high in the handicap and connections are surely eyeing a race at either Epsom, where he’s won twice, or Windsor where he’s a five time winner. His presence is likely to make life more difficult for Many A Star and Alcazan, who will also want to go forward.
Live In The Moment won here three starts ago but that’s his only win in almost 4 years and he’s another who likes to get on with it so could be involved in an early burn up. He handles soft ground but much of his best form is at 5f so he might not get home over 6f in heavy ground on his first start of the season
Dayman is the complete outsider in the early betting and it’s easy to see why. He usually runs in a much lower grade, seems better on the all weather and also does most of his running over slightly further. He’s yet another pace angle who could make life difficult for the other early leaders.
Summary
The likely pace setup here makes it slightly easier to oppose Many A Star and Alcazan so the quartet to concentrate on are likely to be, in market order, Bishop’s Crown, Spanish Star, Baldomero and Gisburn.
Bishop’s Crown has to be the most likely winner but he’s short enough considering he has to translate that recent, impressive, good ground win to likely heavy ground here. He has run well on heavy ground before and has won on soft which mitigates much of the risk at least.
The most likely runner up has to be Baldomero, who does need to prove his effectiveness at this course but other than that looks extremely likely to go very well, but also extremely likely not to win.
Spanish Star was behind Gisburn when the latter won here last season and he’s not weighted to reverse that form. He does, however, come here off the back of an excellent run whereas Gisburn has a little more to prove.
I’m not taking that Newbury form at face value though where Gisburn is concerned. Gisburn is also better drawn based on the stall data and Spanish Star might be doubly poorly drawn considering his run style as he’s going to need some serious luck in running if they stick to the near side rail. With that in mind, preference is for Gisburn, at around twice the price, over Spanish Star.
I’m unlikely to recommend any official bets for my members on this race as I think it’s a bit too open for my liking and the odds compilers seem to have got the race largely correct. At a general 7/1 I do think that GISBURN is slightly overpriced and although he comes with risks attached, I wouldn’t put anyone off a small each way bet on him. I wouldn’t put anyone off going win only either as he is risky and may well fail to give his running. If he does give his running though, he could still find Bishop’s Crown too good so having that place safety net is ideal.
One other bet I’d consider on this race is a straight forecast, BISHOP’S CROWN TO BEAT BALDOMERO. The latter is an excellent horse to include in forecasts due to his tendency to finish 2nd and whilst there isn’t much value in backing Bishop’s Crown at 3/1, adding Baldomero to the bet to make it a forecast doesn’t increase the risk by much but does have a very positive effect on the odds you’ll be getting.
If Bishop’s Crown ended up getting pulled out because of the ground (unlikely), I’d consider forecasts on Gisburn to beat Baldomero and also on Spanish Star to beat Gisburn.
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