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Glorious Goodwood 2010 |
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racing news /
Sussex Stakes 10-Year-Trends
26/07/10
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
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Age (Winners-Placed-Runners)
3yo: 6-9-37
4yo: 1-5-30
5yo: 2-1-11
6yo+: 1-2-8
6 of 10 winners were aged 3 and they have also filled 15 of 27 places from just 43% of the runners.
Of the 4 horses aged 4+ to win this, 3 finished in the first 2 in the Queen Anne.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had run between 3 and 5 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (two exceptions had finished 2nd and 3rd in a group 1 over 1M-1M2F)
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had won a group 3, one had yet to run in group 1, the other two had finished 2nd & 3rd in group 1 company)
8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the Royal meeting that season
Other Races
Previous season’s winner (Rip Van Winkle): 522 (0-2-3)
St James Palace Stakes winner (Canford Cliffs): 1314521 (3-2-7)
Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Canford Cliffs): 3151 (2-1-4)
Previous season’s Coventry winner (Canford Cliffs): 21 (1-1-2)
Previous season’s Dewhurst winner (Beethoven): 1 (1-0-1)
Summer Mile winner (Premio Loco): 66 (0-0-2)
Prix Jean Prat winner (Dick Turpin): 45 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the St James Palace Stakes, finishing 1211
4 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 2114
3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Anne Stakes, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hong Kong Mile, finishing 53
4 of 6 winners aged 3 finished 1st or 2nd in the St James Palace Stakes
3 of 4 winners aged 4+ finished 1st or 2nd in the Queen Anne Stakes
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (4-4-19) has won the race 4 times in the past 10 years, all 3 of his winners were 3yos, though he has only saddled one older horse (Bach 7th in 2001). His first strings have a record of 4-4-10.
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-9) has won the race twice in the past decade.
Richard Hannon (1-1-6) has gained 1 win, 1 second and 3 thirds from his 6 runners since 2000.
Price
9 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and priced 15/2 or below.
Favourites (4-4-11) have a fair record in this race having won it 4 times in the last 10 years, showing a level stakes loss of 2.52.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3
• Finished 1st or 2nd last time out & posted highest RPR
• Run 3 to 5 times in 2010
• Run in last 55 days
• Won over a mile
• Won a group 1
• Finished in the first two at Royal Ascot (St James Palace or Queen Anne)
• Trained by Aidan O’Brien
• From first 4 in the betting (15/2 or lower)
