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from our USA correspondent
Horse Racing Handicapping – Essential Factors
16/07/13
Connoisseurs know that handicapping is one of the most intimidating aspects of horse racing wagering. This is where science meets Lady Luck’s domain and because the variables involved in horse racing are indeed a lot more numerous than those linked to other sports, proper horse racing handicapping can indeed be a rather daunting undertaking.
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To make a long story short, let’s take a look at some of the most important handicapping factors.
The ability of the trainer is obviously an important and in the same time easy to keep track of factor.
The ability of the jockey – yet another important element indeed.
The ability of the horse – this one’s a no-brainer.
The current form of the horse – this is where advanced handicapping skills are called upon.
Miscellaneous other factors.
Trainer performance is one of the easiest elements to factor into one’s handicapping. Trainers who have overall winning percentages of 6% or lower are obvious targets in this respect. Obviously, one cannot state that the horses run by these trainers cannot win an individual race, but such lowly winning percentages should represent an obvious clue for handicappers when it comes to spotting “false favorites”. Furthermore, some trainers with much better winning percentages (in the 10-12% range, are often also extremely week under certain circumstances, like when the race is run in turf or when they’re dealing with 1st time starters, etc.
The ability of the jockey is quite possibly the least significant variable in the handicapping equation. Unless the guy is one who simply cannot win under any circumstances, handicappers should not put a great deal of emphasis on this aspect.
The ability of the horse and its current form is what the bulk of the handicapping work goes into. Many handicappers use computer programs to get this part of their handicapping out of the way because of the enormous amount of data that needs to be crunched here. If you’re thinking about adopting such a computer program yourself, by all means: do.
The par times, ability times, power- and pace ratings of the horse should receive extra scrutiny here.
The current form of the horse is one of the trickier aspects to handicap. Knowing a horse well enough to know its condition cycle is something usually only the best of the best can get right. In this respect, layoffs are extremely important as they offer pretty much the only stable point one can latch onto.
Rakemeback is your top ally in the fight against the poker rake.
