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Hennessy Gold Cup 2011 |
Hennessy Gold Cup Trends
21/11/11
The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 26th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers.
In 2002 Be My Royal won the race was disqualified weeks later due to a banned substance, from a trends point of view we will count Be My Royal as the winner in 2002.
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Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-3
6yo: 3-10-27
7yo: 5-7-57
8yo: 1-4-34
9yo: 1-3-37
10yo: 0-3-16
11yo+: 0-0-5
6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-84) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-10-95).
Diamond Edge in 1981 is the only horse aged over 9 to have won the race in the last 40 years.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 6-7-47
Horses carrying less than 11-0: 4-20-132
Higher weights hold the call in this with 5 of the last 6 winners all carrying 11-4 or more, one exception was last year when Denman was the only runner in the 18-strong field to carry over 11-0.
Top Weight: 90F91P1313 (3-2-10) has gained 3 wins and 2 places in last 5 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 159 to 174: 2-1-11
Horses rated 142 to 158: 6-17-96
Horses rated 126 to 141: 2-9-73
The 2 wins & 1 place from horses rated 159+ were all achieved by Denman.
5 of the last 6 winners were officially rated 150 or higher.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (exception was placed in previous year’s Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts
7 of 10 winners were second season chasers
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences
8 of 10 winners had won a graded/listed chase
Other Races
Previous season’s winner (Diamond Harry): 3 (0-1-1)
Bet totepool Novice Chase winner (Aiteen Thirtythree): P7P11 (2-0-5)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Great Endeavour): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Aiteen Thirtythree): 35 (0-1-2)
Towton Novice Chase winner (Wayward Prince): 68 (0-0-2)
Racing Post Chase winner (Quinz): 6P (0-0-2)
Cotswold Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): 807 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season’s Feltham, finishing 25
2 of 10 winners ran in the Bet Totepool Novice Chase, finishing 11
Diamond Harry may try to repeat last year’s win, the only previous horse to win back to back runnings was Arkle.
Running Style
8 of 10 winners (last 6) raced with the leaders throughout
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-6-22) has won the race 3 times in the past 8 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating 2 out.
Nicky Henderson (1-3-10) saddled the winner in 2005 and has had a placed finisher in 3 of the last 5 renewals.
Willie Mullins (1-1-5), David Pipe (1-1-7) and Philip Hobbs (1-1-11) have each gained a winner and a place from their runners in past 10 years.
Price
7 of last 8 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter
No massive trend on the prices though the first 3 in the betting have been responsible for 6 of the last 8 winners.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes profit of 0.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 or 7
• Carrying 11-0+
• Officially rated 150 to 158
• Run in 3 to 6 chase (winning at least half)
• Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M 1F+
• Won a listed or graded chase
• Finished in the first 2 last time out
• Run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
• Tends to race prominently
• Second season chaser that ran in RSA and/or Feltham Chase
• Trained by P Nicholls, D Pipe, N Henderson or W Mullins
• Price 10/1 or shorter
