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Dewhurst Odds Don’t Reflect the Facts
11/10/10

Hopes seem fairly high that at least two of the three leading juvenile colts this season will take each other on in what promises to be a highly informative renewal of the Group 1 Dubai Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket on October 16, writes Elliot Slater.

Henry Cecil’s imposing Galileo colt Frankel is a best priced 8/11 chance having hacked up in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot last month, but it is undoubtedly the case that his price reflects the popularity of his trainer and of Frankel’s limitless potential, rather than being an accurate assessments of his merits relative to the opposition. It may well also be the case that his price reflects a certain degree of scepticism in the likelihood of last week’s brilliant Group 1 Middle Park Stakes winner Dream Ahead actually taking his place in the line-up at Newmarket.

In beating Royal Ascot winner Strong Suit and another classy group winner Approve by nine lengths at HQ, David Simcock’s Dream Ahead put up a performance that has rightly been compared to that of Arazi in the early 1990’s and suggests he could be the best juvenile colt in the UK for two decades or more. Previously a fine winner of the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville, the way he swept aside proven pattern race performers surely rates him a better horse than Frankel, who coasted home at Ascot against listed class animals, at best.

So have the bookies got it completely wrong in offering racing tips for today of 8/11 for Frankel and 3/1 for Dream Ahead? The ante-post third favourite Saamidd (5/1) is also a youngster of tremendous potential, being unbeaten in both career starts including the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last month where Approve was once again placed and provides a good marker to the merits of the form.

If Dream Ahead takes his chance at Newmarket, I and some Horse racing Ireland pundits believe he will burst the Frankel bubble, but in all honesty I expect David Simcock to resist the temptation and put the son of Diktat away for the winter before bringing him back in the spring to take on Frankel and Saamidd in the 2000 Guineas.