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Eclipse Stakes 10-Year-Trends
30/06/10

The Coral Eclipse Stakes takes place at Sandown on Saturday, 3rd July. A group 1 run over 1M 2F, it is the first chance for the classic generation to take on the older horses at the highest level.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Placed-Runners)
3yo: 4-5-30
4yo: 4-9-33
5yo: 2-3-20
6yo+: 0-1-6
8 of 10 winners were aged 3 or 4
All four 3yo winners were trained in Ireland and no horse aged over 5 has won this in the past century.

Gender
Mares (0-1-4) have gained just one place from 4 runners despite 3 of the 4 mares to run in this going off at odds of shorter than 5/1.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winner achieved career highest RPR in last 3 starts
10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
10 of 10 winners had won a group 1
7 of 10 winners were having their first course start (other 3 were course winners)
3 of 4 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 as a 2yo (exception had won a group 2 and not contested a group 1 as a juvenile)

Other Races
Record of horses that ran in the Derby: 3-3-15
Previous season’s Celebration Mile winner (Zacinto): 1 (1-0-1)
Champion Stakes winner (Twice Over): 81 (1-0-2)
Earl Of Sefton Stakes winner (Sri Putra): 5422 (0-2-4)
Sandown Classic Trial winner (Chabal): 40 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in Queen Anne Stakes last time, finishing 115
3 of 10 winners ran in Prince of Wales Stakes last time, finishing 543
6 of 6 winners aged 4+ finished in the first 5 in the Queen Anne or Prince Of Wales
4 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 2241
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 201
2 of 10 winners ran in St James’ Palace Stakes last time, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Derby last time, finishing 21
4 of 4 winner aged 3 finished in the first 4 in the 2000 Guineas and finished in the first 3 in the Derby or St James Palace last time out

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (4-4-19) has trained the winner 4 times in the past 10 years.
Michael Stoute (2-4-12) has had 2 winners and half his 12 runners have made the frame. Stoute has trained the winner 5 times in the races history, all 5 of those winners were previous group 1 winners aged 4 or 5.
Luca Cumani (1-0-3) and Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-9) have both trained the winner once in the past decade.
Henry Cecil (0-2-4) has had couple of his runners placed in the race including Phoenix Tower last year, who was only beaten a short head.

Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) have come from the first 4 in the betting
Only one winner in the past decade was sent off greater than 8/1.
Favourites (2-4-10) don’t have a great record in this race with just 2 winners in the past decade. They show a level stakes loss of 6.90 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Male aged 3 or 4
• Had 2 to 4 runs this season
• Run in last 30 days
• Won a group 1
• A 3yo who finished in the first 4 in 2000 Guineas & finished in first 3 in the Derby or St James Palace
• A horses aged 4+ that ran in the Queen Anne or Prince Of Wales last time
• Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Michael Stoute
• From first 4 in the betting