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Racing News |
Kauto Star "Sixth Best Chaser Since Our Ratings Began" Say
Timeform
21/12/2006
He would have won last 24 King Georges and is 18lb clear of Boxing Day rivals
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If you are thinking about laying Kauto Star at 1.68 (just over 4-6) on Betfair for the King George, then you could well find yourself matching Timeform's Jim McGrath's bet request - and that is not normally sound punting practice.
Actually, Timeform's managing director and Channel 4 form guru McGrath reckons there is one horse that can beat Kauto Star in the Boxing Day showpiece at Kempton - but the would-be layers should be aware that is Kauto Star himself. Here are the three reasons why:
* Since Timeform ratings for jumpers began in the early 60s only FIVE
horses have achieved more in any steeplechase than Paul Nicholls' star.
* Kauto Star's rating suggests he would have won the last 24 runnings of the King George (it became a level weights championship in 1982)
* If the King George were a handicap, Timeform would have him 18lb clear of Monet's Garden and Racing Demon
All of which suggests that Betfair better start writing out a million pound cheque now to Clive Smith, Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls and his stable staff, who will share the prize.
It appears that in only the second year of offering the Betfair Million
- a seven-figure bonus paid to winning connections should any horse win
the Betfair Chase, The King George (or Lexus) and the Cheltenham Gold
Cup - racing has unearthed a superstar capable of sweeping aside all
before him in those Grade 1 staying chases.
Many of the greatest chasers have made their mark on Britain's traditional
Christmas showpiece, among them Arkle, Mill House and Desert Orchid.
And McGrath certainly rates Kauto Star up with there with the best.
McGrath explained: "Timeform ratings for jumpers began in the early
60s. Since then, only a handful of horses have achieved more in any steeplechase
than Paul Nicholls' exciting six-year-old. Arkle (212), Flyingbolt (210),
Mill House (191), Desert Orchid (187) and Dunkirk (186) are the five
in question.
"Kauto Star's current Timeform rating of 184 was achieved on his
reappearance in October when winning the Bonusprint.com Old Roan Chase
at Aintree, a limited handicap in which he beat Armaturk (received 9
lb), one of the most consistent chasers in training, by an easy 21 lengths.
That outstanding display was subsequently followed up by one of similar
merit in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and, last time out, in the William
Hill Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown. At the moment his figure ranks him
alongside Moscow Flyer and Burrough Hill Lad in our comprehensive list.
"The King George didn't become a true level weights championship
until 1982. However, taken at face value, Kauto Star's rating suggests
he'd have won all 24 renewals since conditions changed. Is racing that
simple; are ratings that reliable? Probably not. Assessing easy winners
can be tricky and Kauto's figure actually includes an "add on" of
6 lb.
"However, even applying just his "base" rating of 178, and after treating every other "easy" King George winner in the same fashion, he still appears good enough to have won all but two of the aforementioned two dozen, the exceptions being those won by See More Business in 1999 (182) and by One Man in 1995 (179)."
A different analysis of Timeform's Kempton ratings lends further credence to the argument that he only has to stand up to win. If the King George were to be run on handicap terms, judged on the Halifax organisation's current assessment, this is how those weights would look:
How Timeform rate the King George as a handicap
Kauto Star 11.10
Racing Demon 10.6
Monet's Garden 10.6
L'Ami 10.1
Ollie Magern 10.0
Monkerhostin 9.13
Exotic Dancer 9.10
Mister McGoldrick 9.8
Commercial Flyer 9.2
Ballycassidy 8.13
Yes Sir 8.10
Puntal 7.11
However, McGrath did sound one note of caution.
"Anyone using statistics alone to determine the outcome of any race should beware," added McGrath. "Importantly, neither Racing Demon nor Monet's Garden are fully exposed. Therefore, their current ratings may not represent their true merit, especially bearing in mind that both step up to 3m for the first time on Boxing Day.
"But, on all known form, Kauto Star will win."
To win the Stan James King George - Betfair bet: 1.67 Kauto Star, 6.8 Monet's Garden, 9.2 Racing Demon, 19 Exotic Dancer, 22 Monkerhostin, 28 Yes Sir, 70 Ollie Magern, 95 Commercial Flyer, L'Ami, 310 Ballycassidy, 460 Puntal, 480 Mister McGoldrick.
Kauto Star - The Best Chaser Officially
19/11/2006
Phil Smith, the British Horseracing Board’s senior jump handicapper, has rated Kauto Star on 176 after the chaser’s impressive 17-length success in the Grade One £200,000 Betfair Chase at Haydock Park on the first day of the North West Masters. [more]
