Epsom Derby

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Investec Oaks 10-Year-Trends
31/05/10

The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 4th June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. In recent years it has really paid to stick with the favourite in this race, Look Here, in 2008, has been the only real shock winner of this century.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
British bred: 5-8-51
Irish bred: 2-10-61
American bred: 2-1-11
German bred: 1-0-3
Japanese bred: 0-0-1
UAE bred: 0-0-1
British bred horses have won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 40% of the runners.
American bred horses have 2 of the last 10 from approximately 8.6% of the runners.
No real stand out trends on the breeding, with the last 2 winners being sired by Pivotal (July Cup winner) and Hernando (French Derby winner).

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 6 career starts
9 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in an Oaks trial on seasonal debut)
9 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
7 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (2 of 3 exceptions finished 2nd in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+

Other Races
Musidora Stakes winner (Aviate): 2833851 (1-3-7)
Cheshire Oaks winner (Gertrude Bell): 7306100 (1-1-7)
Pretty Polly winner (Marie De Medici): 34051000 (1-1-8)
Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Dyna Waltz): 77902 (0-1-5)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 16
3 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 422
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel, finishing 22
The last 6 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

Trainers
Henry Cecil (2-1-5) has won this race 8 times and he’s won it twice in the last 10 years from just 5 runners.
Aidan O’Brien (2-6-25) has also won the race twice in the past decade, however from significantly more runners. His first strings have a record of 2-5-9.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-8), Ralph Beckett (1-0-2) and Michael Jarvis (1-0-2) have each saddled the winner once since 2000.
Michael Stoute (0-2-10) and Barry Hills (0-2-10) have both filled 2 places from 10 runners in the last 10 years.
Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-8-32, though when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-2-7.

Price
8 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and priced 13/2 or below.
Favourites (6-2-11) have a superb record in this having won 6 of the last 10 and showing a level stakes profit of 9.96 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• British or American Bred
• Had 1 or 2 runs this season
• Ran in the past 35 days and achieved career high RPR
• Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
• Won over 1M+
• Won last time out
• Finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial
• Trained by Henry Cecil or Aidan O’Brien (first string)
• Sent off favourite