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Racing UK Blog |
Epsom
Derby
Investec Derby 10-Year-Trends
21/05/10
The Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 5th June and while it is highly unlikely we will see anything of the calibre of Sea The Stars in this year’s race, there are still plenty of potential superstars entered. As always Aidan O’Brien is mob-handed and currently has the first 3 in the betting.
Age
Race for 3yos
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-11-81
British bred: 2-6-47
American bred: 1-3-18
French bred: 0-0-2
German bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 7 of last 10 from approximately 54.4% of the total runners.
10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
9 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 3 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on all starts that season
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas)
10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 115+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
6 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (other 4 didn’t run in a group 1 as a 2yo)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a group 1
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
10 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they’d run in
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+ as a 2yo
7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (all 3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas)
9 of 10 winners made their debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
Other Races
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Midas Touch): 111343032 (3-4-9)
Dante Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 2739110120 (3-3-10)
Ballysax Stakes winner (Puncher Clynch): 1152 (2-1-4)
Dee Stakes winners (Azmeel): 1508 (1-0-4)
Racing Post Trophy winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 07106116 (3-0-8)
Dewhurst winner (Beethoven): 311 (2-1-3)
Beresford Stakes winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 30201 (1-2-5)
Futurity Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 20P1 (1-1-4)
Tyros Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 14 (1-0-2)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Bullet Train): 680409367 (0-1-9)
Chester Vase winner (Ted Spread): 5660545 (0-0-7)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ballysax Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Derrinstown Dtud Derby Trial, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11
Trainers
British-trained runners: 5-11-98
Irish-trained runners: 5-8-46
French-trained runners: 0-1-5
Aidan O’Brien (2-6-37) had 7 runners in the race last year, saddling the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th home. He has not won the race since 2002. His first strings have a record: 1-3-10.
Michael Stoute (2-2-9) won back to back runnings of the race in 2003 and 2004. His first strings have a record of 2-2-5.
John Oxx (2-1-3) has saddled two winners and a third from his 3 runners in the race in the past decade. Any runner from his yard demands respect.
Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4), Michael Bell (1-0-2), Jim Bolger (1-0-2) and Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) have all won the race once in the past 10 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-4-13) and John Dunlop (0-2-4) have both had multiple placed finishers since 2000.
Price
10 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and were priced 7/1 or shorter
Favourites (4-5-12) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 0.38 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
• Born before 07/04/2007
• Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
• Had run in the past 35 days
• Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas)
• Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
• Won Dante, Derrinstown or placed in 2000 Guineas last time out
• Won a group race
• Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
• Won over 7F+ as a 2yo and 1M 2F as a 3yo
• Trained by A O’Brien, M Stoute or J Oxx
• Priced 7/1 or below
