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By Billy Blakeman ValueChecker

2012 Coral Cup Wikis Point to Bothy & Third Intention
06/01/12

The Coral Cup held on the Wednesday at Cheltenham is one of the bigger betting races of the festival and with a maximum field, this handicap is always competitive.

Bothy
© Racehorse Photos

If we look at some of the stats from the previous runnings, there are definitely some useful pointers and also a few likely to mislead. Firstly, let's dispel the myth that this is a bad race for favourites. A single winning favourite in the past 10-years is what we would statistically expect and that is exactly what we have, Xenophon winning in 2003. The average SP since then has been lower than we might expect with average odds of only 11/1 over the past 5-years. Bearing in mind the relatively big price of the favourite in a race like this, we can say that this is a race where those better fancied are to be favoured.

This may be in part due to some proper pointers being available and let's look at age. The last 10 winners have been aged 6776597655 and so 5 to 7 year olds would appear to hold the call. This is a stat we would expect in a race like this where the ability to find improvement is critical but nonetheless, it is valid to concentrate on this age group. Tied in with this stat is experience. 8 of the last 10 winners had only had hurdle starts into single figures and again, this points to the need for a horse to be capable of a personal best effort.

Weight is always interesting to look at and the fact that we had a winner off top weight of 11st 12lb rather implies that weight is not especially significant. Three more winners have carried 11-stone + in the last 10-years (including the last two) and so weight needn't be a barrier.

The Irish do well in the race with 7 winners in the past 17 and 4 of the last 10. Read the stat correctly though, English-trained horses have won 6 of the last 10 so it doesn't really matter which side of the water the horse is trained.

One pointer that does look interesting is that 6 of the past 8 won their previous start although again, this is in part a sub-stat of the young improving hurdler profile generally.

Looking to use the information above and the wiki horse stats to find some early bets, the most obvious is Bothy. With any race at Cheltenham, previous festival form is a massive positive and Bothy was second in last year's Coral Cup. Also has other decent form at the track and off just 2 lb higher than last year, his chance is apparent with a number of other ticks in boxes. After 8-runs, he remains unexposed, he is a 6-y-o and his rating of 140 fits nicely into the band of likely winners. Add his record of 3-4 on soft ground, then he must be a serious fancy if the ground rides easy.

Third Intention
© Racehorse Photos

Third Intention catches the eye as well for Cue Card's trainer Colin Tizzard. Although failing to justify the author's confidence in last year's Triumph Hurdle, he stayed on well enough and he has other decent form at Prestbury Park. Lightly-raced and the right age, he has a notable record of improvement, setting 5 new personal bets in 7 hurdle contests. Possibly better on decent ground and a strong contender if the ground is decent so worth pairing on the shortlist with soft ground specialist Bothy.

The Irish have a strong hand as one would expect and one that appeals at a price is the Gordon Elliot trained Some Present. Although a 9-y-o, this stoutly-bred type made the racecourse very late so should not be ruled out on age alone. With previous festival form in demand, Some Present can claim to have been second to Dunguib in the 2009 Bumper and that was a superb effort on his second start. Although the yard are likley to run last year's winner, Carlito Brigante, that one is much higher in the weights whereas Some Present can race off 9lb lower than when 8th in the 2010 Neptune Novices Hurdle.

Recommendation:

Bothy 20/1, Third Intention 25/1 & Some Present 25/1 (all e/w)

CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) PREVIOUS RESULTS

2010-WINNER-SPIRIT RIVER 5-11-02 Owner-Michael Buckley; Trainer-Nicky Henderson; Jockey-Barry Geraghty; SP-14/1
2ND-Tullamore Dew 8-10-10 Owner-Tullamore Dew; Trainer-Nick Gifford; Jockey-Liam Treadwell; SP-80/1
3RD-James De Vassy 5-11-04 Owner-Jakeman, Barrett, Booth & Ferrand; Trainer-Nick Williams; Jockey-Daryl Jacob; SP16/1
4TH-Micheal Flips 6-11-07 Owner-Martin Tedham; Trainer-Andy Turnell; Jockey-Nick Scholfield; SP-33/1 28 ran, Time-5m 13.50s; Dist-4½, 2¾ , 1/2 7/1 Fav Deutschland (12th)

2009-WINNER-NINETIETH MINUTE 6-10-03 Owner-Dermot Cox; Trainer-Tom Taaffe IRE; Jockey-Paddy Flood; SP-14/1
2ND-Mirage Dore 6-9-11 Owner-Mr & Mrs Duncan Davidson; Trainer-Lucinda Russell; Jockey-Mrs Rose Dobbin; SP-14/1
3RD-Pause And Clause 5-9-11 Owner-Robert Cohen; Trainer-Emma Lavelle; Jockey-Jack Doyle; SP-9/1
4TH-Star Of Angels 5-9-11 Owner-Roger Brookhouse; Trainer-David Pipe; Jockey-Hadden Frost; SP-40/1 27 ran, Time-5m 13.50s; Dist-1½, ½, 7 6/1 Fav The Polomoche (10th)

2008-WINNER-NAIAD DU MISSELOT 7-10-13 Owner-Hill, Trembath, Bryan & Outhart; Trainer-Ferdy Murphy; Jockey-Davy Russell; SP-7/1
2ND-Kicks For Free 7-11-12 Owner-Trevor Hemmings; Trainer-Paul Nicholls; Jockey-Ruby Walsh; SP-11/1
3RD-Junior 5-11-02 Owner-Paul Green; Trainer-Alan King; Jockey-Robert Thornton; SP12/1
4TH-Mendo 8-11-00 Owner-Mrs M C Sweeney; Trainer-Noel Chance; Jockey-Tom Siddall; SP14/1 24 ran, Time-5m 5.10s; Dist-nse, 1½, 3½ 11/2 Fav County Zen (18th)

2007-WINNER-BURNTOAKBOY 9-09-12 Owner-Dr Richard & Laura Newland; Trainer-Dr Richard Newland; Jockey-Sam Jones; SP-10/1
2ND-Powerstation 7-11-00 Owner-Fat Frog Syndicate; Trainer-Michael John Phillips IRE; Jockey-Denis O’Regan; SP-12/1
3RD-Baron De Feypo 9-10-03 Owner-Rita Shah; Trainer-Oliver Brady; Jockey-Niki O’Shea; SP-20/1
4TH-Oscatello 7-10-08 Owner-Rye Braune; Trainer-Philip Hobbs; Jockey-Richard Johnson; SP-8/1
28 ran, Time-5m 07.10s; Dist-3, 5, 1½ 6/1 Fav Copsale Lad (16th)

2006-WINNER SKY’S THE LIMIT 5-11-12 Owner-Raymond Rooney; Trainer-Edward O’Grady IRE; Jockey-Barry Geraghty; SP-11/1
2ND-Strangely Brown 5-11-03 Owner-We Didn’t Name Him Syndicate; Trainer-Eric McNamara IRE; Jockey-Brian Byrnes; SP-25/1
3RD-Dom D’Orgeval 6-11-12 Owner-Jane Williams; Trainer-Nick Williams; Jockey-Richard Johnson; SP-20/1
4TH-Phar Bleu 5-11-06 Owner-The Stewart Family; Trainer-Paul Nicholls; Jockey-Ruby Walsh; SP-10/1
30 ran, Time-5m 02.50s; Dist-4, .75, nk 5/1 Fav No Where To Hyde (Fell)

2005-WINNER-IDOLE FIRST 6-10-10 Owner-Direct Sales UK Ltd; Trainer-Venetia Williams; Jockey-Alan O’Keeffe; SP-33/1
2ND-Dancing Bay 8-11-01 Owner-Elite Racing Club; Trainer-Nicky Richards; Jockey-Mick Fitzgerald; SP-14/1
3RD-Tumbling Dice 6-11-01 Owner-Mrs John Donegan; Trainer-Tom Taaffe IRE; Jockey-Barry Geraghty; SP-16/1
4TH-Covent Garden 7-10-07 Owner-Ada Partnership; Trainer-Howard Johnson; Jockey-Tony Dobbin; SP-14/1
29 ran, Time-5m 04.80s; Dist-5, 6, 5 100/30 Fav Distant Prospect (9th)

2004-WINNER-MONKERHOSTIN 7-10-08 Owner-Martin St Quinton; Trainer-Philip Hobbs; Jockey-Richard Johnson; SP-13/2
2ND-Court Shareef 9-9-11 Owner-Derek and Cheryl Holder; Trainer-Richard Price; Jockey-Wayne Hutchinson; SP-200/1
3RD-Rhinestone Cowboy 8-11-05 Owner-Sue Magnier; Trainer-Jonjo O’Neill; Jockey-Mr J P Magnier; SP-5/1 Fav
4TH-Mughas 5-10-05 Owner-B Winfield, C Fenton & A Longman; Trainer-Alan King; Jockey-Robert Thornton; SP-11/2
27 ran, Time-4m 59.50s; Dist-1, 1 1/4, 2 1/2

2003-WINNER-XENOPHON 7-11-00 Owner-Lane Syndicate; Trainer-Tony Martin IRE; Jockey-Mick FitzGerald; SP-4/1 Fav
2ND-Samon 6-11-03 Owner-The Macca & Growler Partnership; Trainer-Martin Pipe; Jockey-David Casey; SP-25/1
3RD-Spectrometer 6-11-08 Owner-Concertina Racing; Trainer-Philip Hobbs; Jockey-Richard Johnson; SP-10/1
4TH-Emotional Moment 6-11-04 Owner-Watercork Syndicate; Trainer-Tom Taaffe; Jockey-Barry Geraghty; SP-7/1
27 ran, Time-5m 4.30s, Dist-3.5, 1, 3

2002-WINNER-ILNAMAR 6-10-05 Owner-Joe Moran; Trainer-Martin Pipe; Jockey-Rodi Greene; SP-25/1
2ND-Joss Naylor 7-10-00 Owner-Darren Mercer; Trainer-Jonjo O’Neill; Jockey-Liam Cooper; SP-13/2
3RD-Master Tern 7-10-03 Owner-J P McManus; Trainer-Jonjo O’Neill; Jockey-Tony Dobbin; SP-8/1
4TH-Stromness 5-10-03 Owner-Lady Harris; Trainer-Alan King; Jockey-Robert Thornton; SP-12/1
27 ran, Time-5m 15.0s, Dist-8, 3, 4 11/2 Fav Golden Alpha (26th)

2001 - No Race (Foot and Mouth Disease)

2000-WINNER-WHAT’S UP BOYS 6-10-03 Owner-RJB Partners; Trainer-Philip Hobbs; Jockey-Mr Paul Flynn; SP-33/1
2ND-Native Dara 7-10-04 Owner-Oriel Two Syndicate; Trainer-Noel Meade IRE; Jockey-Barry Geraghty; SP-25/1
3RD-Ross Moff 7-10-03 Owner-Seamus Ross; Trainer-Tony Martin IRE; Jockey-Charlie Swan; SP-15/2
4TH-Vanilla Man 7-10-00 Owner-Mrs Paul Duffin; Trainer-Paddy Mullins IRE; Jockey-Tommy Treacy; SP-25/1
26 ran, Time-4m 53.80s, Dist-nk, 3, 2, 7/1 Fav Brandon Court (5th)

1999-WINNER KHAYRAWANI 7-11-03 Owner-J P McManus; Trainer-Christy Roche IRE; Jockey-Fran Berry; SP-16/1
2ND-Miltonfield 10-10-00 Owner-J C Savage; Trainer-John Mulhern IRE; Jockey-Conor O’Dwyer; SP-33/1
3RD-Generosa 6-10-10 Owner-Trish Hyde; Trainer-John Hassett IRE; Jockey-Tommy Treacy; SP-12/1
4TH-Darapour 5-10-00 Owner-J P McManus; Trainer-Aidan O’Brien IRE; Jockey-Charlie Swan; SP-14/1
30 ran, Time-5m 6.6s, Dist-hd, nk, 5 13/2 Fav Archive Footage (25th)

1998-WINNER-TOP CEES 8-10-00 Owner-Charlton Bloodstock Ltd; Trainer-Lynda Ramsden; Jockey-Barry Fenton; SP-11/1
2ND-Khayrawani 6-10-06 Owner-J P McManus; Trainer-Christy Roche IRE; Jockey-Fran Berry; SP-20/1
3RD-Royal Marine 6-10-00 Owner-J P McManus; Trainer-Arthur Moore IRE; Jockey-Conor O’Dwyer;SP-10/1
4TH-Like A Lion 7-10-00 Owner-Orla Finucane; Trainer-Donald Swan IRE; Jockey-Charlie Swan; SP-12/1
21 ran, Time-5m 1.1s, Dist-1.25, .75, 1 6/1 Fav Daraydan (10th)

1997-WINNER-BIG STRAND 8-10-00 Owner-E C Jones; Trainer-Martin Pipe; Jockey-Jamie Evans; SP-16/1
2ND-Allegation 7-11-06 Owner-Martin Pipe Racing Club; Trainer-Martin Pipe; Jockey-Tony McCoy; SP-20/1
3RD-Castle Sweep 6-12-00 Owner-Lord Vestey; Trainer-David Nicholson; Jockey-Richard Johnson; SP-14/1
4TH-Tullymurry Toff 6-10-10 Owner-John Wilson and J H Riley; Trainer-Malcolm Jefferson; Jockey-Eddie Callaghan;
SP-9/2 Fav 28 ran, Time-4m 57.0s, Dist-sh, hd, 1

1996-WINNER-TRAINGLOT 9-10-03 Owner-Marquesa de Moratalla; Trainer-Jimmy FitzGerald; Jockey-Mark Dwyer; SP-11/2
2ND-Treasure Again 7-10-00 Owner-J H Gwynne; Trainer-Merrita Jones; Jockey-Derek Byrne; SP-9/1
3RD-New Co 8-10-07 Owner-Mrs L C Ronan and Anne Daly; Trainer-Mouse Morris IRE; SP-9/1
4TH-Barna Boy 8-10-02 Owner-Lynn Wilson; Trainer-Nicky Henderson; Jockey-Mick FitzGerald; SP-16/1
20 ran, Time-5m 12.2s, Dist-hd, 1.25, 2 7/2 Fav Time For A Run (8th)

1995-WINNER-CHANCE COFFEY 10-10-00 Owner-Paddy O'Donnell; Trainer-Pat O'Donnell IRE; Jockey-Gerry O'Neill; SP-11/1
2ND-Derrymoyle 6-10-10 Owner-Herb Stanley; Trainer-Michael Cunningham IRE; Jockey-Mark Dwyer; SP-12/1
3RD-Time For A Run 8-11-10 Owner-J P McManus; Trainer-Edward O'Grady IRE; Jockey-Charlie Swan; SP-10/1
4TH-Collier Bay 5-10-06 Owner-Wally Sturt; Trainer-Jim Old; Jockey-Tom Grantham; SP-7/1
30 ran, Time-5m 18.4s, Dist-3.5, sh, 3 6/1 Fav Lemon’s Mill (17th)