2026 Randox Grand National

Stats and Trends Analysis

2026 result

Class, Not Chance: What This Year’s National Tells Us About the Modern Race
The Modern National Is Increasingly Favouring Class Over Weight

For years, conventional wisdom insisted that you needed a horse creeping in under 11st, but that argument is looking increasingly outdated.

Recent renewals are being won by horses towards the top of the handicap, suggesting the race is less about “getting in light” and more about outright ability. In simple terms, the National is evolving into a class race disguised as a handicap.

Experience At Aintree And In The Race Itself Is No Longer A Negative

Historically, returning winners and placed horses had a poor record. That has now been firmly turned on its head.

  • I Am Maximus: 1st (2024), 2nd (2025), 1st (2026)
  • First repeat winner since Red Rum

What was once viewed as a negative now looks a major positive, with proven Aintree performers repeatedly holding their form.

Favourites Are Becoming Far More Potent

Another old narrative that continues to erode.

  • Starting price: 9/2 favourite
  • Market leaders now performing far more strongly

The public form horse is no longer something to oppose blindly.

Irish Dominance Continues To Tighten Its Grip
  • Willie Mullins: 3 consecutive Nationals
  • Irish-trained horses dominating recent renewals

The depth of Irish staying chasers and targeted preparation continue to give them a decisive edge.

Age Trends Still Matter… But Are Narrowing
  • Most winners: aged 8–10
  • Majority of recent winners fall within that bracket

Older, battle-hardened horses are now holding their level more consistently than before.

Completion Rate And Race Attrition Remain Significant
  • Only 16 of 34 finished
  • Multiple fallers again highlighted the demands

The National still demands jumping fluency and a degree of luck in running.

The “Perfect Profile” Is Becoming Clearer
  • Irish-trained
  • Proven over 3m+
  • High-class (rated 150+)
  • Carries weight well
  • Has Cheltenham or Grade 1 form
  • Previous Aintree experience a bonus
  • Prominent racer

I Am Maximus fits almost perfectly as a modern National archetype.

The Big Shift: From Lottery To Pattern Race

The Grand National used to be framed as chaos. Now it increasingly rewards class, preparation and repeatability — and that shift is reshaping how the race is both analysed and won.

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