RacingBetter News
	Friday 4th April 2025

Tight at the Top: The 2025 Grand National Looks a Tough Call

If you had to name a race off the top of your head for which it is tough to pick the winner, the Grand National would rank near the top. Other global races have, at least in recent years, also been challenging to call, and we would include the Melbourne Cup and Kentucky Derby in that list. Still, the fact that there is a perception that anyone can win is part of the genetic makeup of the nation.

There are some very valid reasons for that. First, there is a vast field. Thirty-four runners will take to the Aintree fences (it used to be 40, but the field size was reduced for safety reasons), which can add to the puzzle. Yes, we can argue that the cream will rise to the top, but with such a large field, horses can hamper each other. The second reason is the test of the 4-mile circuit and 30 fences, which can bring down even the best horses.

Market leaders are generating little buzz.

Nonetheless, there are years when we have standout candidates – hot favorites – who duly deliver. Tiger Roll springs to mind, but we can also cite other horses, like Minella Times, who started to trend in the weeks leading up to the 2021 Grand National, leading to a massive influx of cash on the horse. Rachel Blackmore duly delivered on that occasion.

Yet, for this year’s Grand National, separating any candidate from the rest of the pack looks brutal. Yes, you will have tipsters in the coming days making their cases – and validly so – for different horses, but when you look at the horse racing betting markets, there is not much to pick between most of the names at the top.

Things can and will change as the money flows in the coming days. Yet, we look at a gaggle of horses at the top of the market – Intense Raffles, Iroko, Vanillier, Stumptown, I Am Maximus, Hewick, and Perceval Legallois – and there isn’t a horse on form that stands out.

Can Mullins and Townend strike again?

Of course, that does not mean that the card lacks interesting candidates. The eye is inevitably drawn to last year’s winner, I Am Maximus. Few would put it past the partnership of Paul Townend and Willie Mullins to raid yet another accolade from British racing. Yet, it’s worth pointing out that I Am Maximus has had two runs since he won the 2024 Grand National – he pulled up in one and came 8th out of 10 runners in the other. It’s not exactly an inspiring form.

We can look at others, like Intense Raffles – the Grand National favorite at the time of writing – and see that recent form is 2nd, 14th, and 9th. Again, it’s not exactly what you will be looking for in the form guide. Others, like Vanillier, looked out of sorts at Cheltenham yet found themselves among the Grand National's favorites.

Does this mean we have a weak field this year? Not precisely, and it’s worth remembering that the markets will change shape once final declarations come in. On the day of the race, you might see a horse that screams value – and, of course, if we look further down the markets today, you’ll likely see a horse or two with big odds that can do well in a race that often rewards longshots. But making a compelling case for any of the favorites is a struggle.