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Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog |
| Friday 6th November 2015 | |
Five to follow for the Jumps season
With the National Hunt season in full flow here are five horses to follow throughout the season. As ever with this subject it is pointless naming some promising individuals without citing under what particular circumstances we should be interested in them.
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1. Regal Encore – Anthony Honeyball
This novice chaser will be of considerable interest when racing in a handicap over two and a half miles. He has raced twice over fences this season and, although well beaten, he has shown distinct signs of promise on both occasions. He has racing over an inadequate two miles each time so has been conservatively ridden and readily outpaced before keeping on in the closing stages. I get the distinct impression that he is being lined up for a decent novice handicap chase. He has class as well; he was runner-up in the Champion Bumper in 2013 at Cheltenham and was seventh to Call The Cops in last year’s Pertemps final over three miles which is palpably too far for him. I suspect he will cut little ice if pitched in against fellow novices, but when contesting handicaps over two and a half miles he is of distinct interest.
2. Min – Willie Mullins
This horse is my Supreme Novices’ Hurdle horse for which he can be backed at 10/1. Believe me he will be shorter than that when he wins his first novice hurdle in Ireland. He is trained by Willie Mullins, owned by the Riccis and Ruby Walsh will ride him – a good start I am sure you’ll agree. In two races at Auteuil he has shown distinct promise in races where the ground would have been too soft. The real reason I like him is his pedigree; he is a son of Walk In The Park, who sired Douvan, the winner of the Supreme in 2015. Douvan had also just run twice in France before joining Mullins. A familiar pattern is emerging, and if he turns up in a Novice hurdle at Gowran in a couple of weeks the similarity with Douvan's career will be uncanny. He may not be the next Douvan but he could be and if you back him now for the Supreme you have a decent trading position.
3. Maputo – John Ferguson
I maintain that one day trainer John Ferguson will land on the next Istabraq. He has to, given the pedigree of the horses he gets and clearly his team is adept at teaching them to jump. Maputo is not Istabraq but he is an ex-Flat horse who is unbeaten over hurdles and is now rated 147. This mark may underplay his ability as he was very useful on the Flat and fired a speed figure at Newmarket one day that suggested he could be a 115 horse on the Flat. With that in mind his main asset over hurdles is always going to be his speed which will be seen to best effect on decent ground. So far he has been kept to sharp tracks winning at Perth, Stratford, Huntingdon and Kempton which is why I believe he is not a Cheltenham horse, nor is he a horse who will relish slogging through deep winter ground. He would, however be very interesting in the spring at somewhere like Aintree on decent ground. He is entered in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham, and he could go well if he gets decent ground, but he is more likely to have his day when the sun is shining and the Aintree Grand National Meeting is where I would be aiming him.
4. Long Dog – Willie Mullins
This Willie Mullins-trained horse has been bullying inferiors so far in his early career. He bolted up in a Grade Three novice hurdle last time at Limerick and I think he will continue to improve. He has a nice flat pedigree being by Notnowcato out of a Sakhee mare which means he will always be suited by some give in the ground. Whether he is good enough to race at the Cheltenham Festival is hard to know, but so far he looks to be a very exciting prospect. His four recent wins were achieved whilst being sent off long odds-on which suggests he is quite highly thought of. A crystal ball is needed to know where he will land ultimately, but let me predict the Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle on the second day of the Festival.
5. Heartbreak City – Tony Martin
This dual purpose horse bolted up at York earlier this year off a mark of 81 before disappointing in the Cesarewitch where I believe he did not stay. The last time he ran over hurdles he was beaten off a mark of 108 but the memory of his facile York win is what we should take forward to the Jumps season. Should he turn up in a handicap hurdle he could have as much as 20lb in hand and he really would be something to bet on. That said I would not be keen to back him over staying trips. He won at Chantilly over 10 furlongs in his younger days and he clearly has lots of speed. Two miles will suit just fine, and he will have his day.
